help me with this 2-5 limit hand from a casino

[hick dead]

normaly i wouldn't play this but it was my big blind and nobody raised. 338k rainbow. big blind is two bucks. flop is 553 with two other players. i bet $5, call and fold. now it's heads up and the turn is 9, bet $5 and he calls. river is an 8. i bet $5 (oops) he raises and i call. he shows a568 for the scoop. now if i coud do this hand over i would have checked the river. but what about my flop and turn bets? how would you have played this hand?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
how would you have played this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]The same as you including the river bet.

Buzz

[Truthiness24]

Are you sure? You're giving up a lot without a low draw. I think it is more player dependent that it looks, and at this low a limit a calling station is going to draw out on you often.

I would have played it the same way -- you're stuck with a good enough of a made hand to go forward -- but the result is unsurprising IMO.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
You're giving up a lot without a low draw. I think it is more player dependent than it looks

[/ QUOTE ]Truthiness = I agree on both counts.

Surely Hero should bet the flop to protect his hand.

Then when Villain calls, Villain could have a five, an over-pair, and/or a low draw. Hard to say.

If Villain has a five, perhaps with an ace kicker, then Villain is more or less stuck in the pot, and unlikely to connect on the turn or river. (Figured from Hero's perspective immediately after the flop, an opponent with A5XY (but not quads or a full house) has ten outs twice 595/810, nine outs twice 210/810, and eight outs twice
15/810.

595/810*10/41+595/810*31/41*10/40=0.318

210/810*9/41+210/810*32/41*9/40=0.103

15/810*8/41+15/810*33/41*8/40=0.007.

0.318+0.103+0.007=0.428

So from hero's perspective immediately after Villain calls Hero's flop bet, if Villain has A5XY, it's 572 to 428 that Villain won't improve by the river.

Of course, Villain doesn't have to hold A5XY. Villain could have trash. Or Villan could have quads or a full house. Or Villan could have an overpair with a low draw. Or Villain could simply either have a low draw or an overpair (maybe aces).

So there are lots of possibilities. And then the turn is a nine. Villain could have made a full house, but probably doesn't hold a nine and is more likely to still be drawing. So Hero charges Villain for the draw.

Clearly Hero would rather have position here. Clearly Hero is at a disadvantage having to act first without a clue as to whether Villain has made a full house or not.

Anyone who argues that position doesn't matter in Omaha-8 either doesn't know the game, is being asinine, is trying to make a joke, or is intentionally intending to mislead. (That's my opinion).

But Hero doesn't have the luxury of position, and estimating he probably is ahead and not wanting to give the free card, Hero bets the nine on the turn. Seems right to me.

Then the river is a different matter. If the eight helped Villain to make a full house, then Hero's goose is cooked. However, I'd guess it most likely Villain has made a low on the river. But sometimes Villains fold to a bet on the river. Or Villain could simply have trip fives with an ace kicker and no low.

I can see enough hands for Villain that either are losers and hands with which Villain has to pay off, or hands a weak Villain might finally fold on the river to make the bet advantageous for Hero.

Hero doesn't need to have Villain fold a hand with which he would have won the low half of the pot very often to have this bet be favorable. And Hero is still favored to win the high.

But then, as it turns out, Hero gets burned.

I still prefer betting this river aggressively to check/calling. Costs only one extra bet to bet/call. I think it's generally worth the risk.

But I do agree it's opponent dependent.

Buzz