Gutshot + 2 Overs. Do I continue?

[milesdyson]

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He and another player then proceeded to call me a donkey, so I figured I'd check in to see if they were right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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This coming from a player who flops a str8 and decides to c/r an LP c-bet on a flop of 789.

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standard

[Landonfan]

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He and another player then proceeded to call me a donkey, so I figured I'd check in to see if they were right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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This coming from a player who calls raises with T6 from the sb

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[CrMenace]

Looks good until the turn to me.

6:1 less rake probably isn't enough here -- I'd discount the overs outs from the usual 1.5 each to a little less as a J completes and SD and villain my already have a straight or two pair. For the same reason, you should discount your GSSD outs somewhat, maybe by 0.5-1, since you may be chopping.

Basically if you thought you had 7 full outs this would be a good call especially since you may be able to make up some bets if your gutshot comes in.

[egocidal]

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but it's more likely, probabilistically, that he has a pair.

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really?

[Sushiglutton]

This is a tough and interesting spot. We could have 10 outs or we could have 3 outs to split. There is also a tiny chance we are ahead and villain will check the river. We need like 7 outs to call. I think it's really close but I would do it.

[Bulletproof Monk]

i call this down ui on most rivers.

[Fantam]

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i call this down ui on most rivers.

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If villain bet the river, you would be getting 8:1 to call.

You would need to win approx 11% of the time for your call to be breakeven EV.

Do you think that your K high would be good that often against an opponent that c/r the flop and led both the turn and river ?