Calling Minimal All-In River Bets

HobbyHorse · #1 09-01-2007, 10:14 AM

Here's the situation (and it's a hypothetical generalization based on many separate experiences):

Say the game is NL and you're to the river with one other player. The pot is $250. The other player (first to act) shoves all-in with his last $50. Now, what exactly should your considerations be in this situation because isn't the math itself pretty irrelevant - you're obviously getting great odds to call but if you don't have two pair or better should you even bother? I guess what I'm asking is if you should let your knowledge of the player themselves and/or your own cards completely overrule any odds you're getting in a situation like this...
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

What's your take?

Speel Posher · #2 09-01-2007, 12:25 PM

i think in a situation like this you need to decide what range of hands the player is going to push all in with and where your hand fits inside that range.

Example: if the guy is only shoving with sets, two pair, straights etc. and you are sitting with one pair you should fold.

if the guy pushes a wide range(air, missed straight and flush draws, one pair weak kicker bottom pair etc), your one pair or whatever you have looks pretty good.

you are getting 6-1 odds so you need to be right more than 16 percent of the time to make this profitable.

hope this helps. not too good at these situations myself so if i got something wrong advice is encouraged.

Rek · #3 09-01-2007, 02:01 PM

Instant call if you have anything reasonable (and by reasonable i mean say a good ace or pair). Many many players just pop the last few chips regardless (not for them the chip and chair theory). Even more so if the board shows he may have been chasing say a str8 or flush and has missed

peacock · #4 09-02-2007, 12:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think in a situation like this you need to decide what range of hands the player is going to push all in with and where your hand fits inside that range.

Example: if the guy is only shoving with sets, two pair, straights etc. and you are sitting with one pair you should fold.

if the guy pushes a wide range(air, missed straight and flush draws, one pair weak kicker bottom pair etc), your one pair or whatever you have looks pretty good.

you are getting 6-1 odds so you need to be right more than 16 percent of the time to make this profitable.

hope this helps. not too good at these situations myself so if i got something wrong advice is encouraged.

[/ QUOTE ]how do u no u have to be right 16% of the time i am grap at math. could u explain for me thanks

mykey1961 · #5 09-02-2007, 01:25 AM

It should actually be more like 14.3% ( 1 out of 7 )

7 times you pay $50 for a chance to win a $350 pot.

(350 - 7*50)/7 = 0

If you win 1 out of 6:

(350 - 6*50)/6 = $8.33 profit per attempt on average.

Speel Posher · #6 09-02-2007, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It should actually be more like 14.3% ( 1 out of 7 )

7 times you pay $50 for a chance to win a $350 pot.

(350 - 7*50)/7 = 0

If you win 1 out of 6:

(350 - 6*50)/6 = $8.33 profit per attempt on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, sorry about that...this is correct.

mvdgaag · #7 09-02-2007, 12:06 PM

Most of the time you shouldn't get to this point without knowing the last chips are going in regardless. When he made the last bet before this one (or even the one before that) you should have decided you were enough ahead of his range to make a call for all of his chips profitable.

The new 2p2 book 'professional NL holdem' advices not to put more than 1/3rd of your stack in without being commited to put the rest in. With a lot of exceptions of course.

Anyways. He's giving you 6:1 and you should probably always call if you got this far. If you lose it and he didn't suck out on you on the river you probably shouldn't have let the pot get this big in the first place.

vaNq · #8 09-04-2007, 12:18 PM

IMO river bet might as well be in the pot before the river card even hits. With 1/6th the pot behind him, the river should change nothing as to your calling the bet unless you were on a draw that did not hit.

PLAYOFFS · #9 09-04-2007, 04:39 PM

You should never be in that situation with him only having $50 left. If you do put yourself in that situation you are planning on calling that river bet regardless of the card.

Gonso · #10 09-05-2007, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You should never be in that situation with him only having $50 left. If you do put yourself in that situation you are planning on calling that river bet regardless of the card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with Playoffs.

The first thing you have to do is get it into your mind that even getting a great price (like 6-to-1), it's not an automatic call. Yes, you won't be making many big laydowns, but for marginal hands think it through a little bit.

And you can wind up in these spots very easily - especially if the hand is (or had been) multiway.

As you guys move up, you're going to have to squeeze value out of smaller and smaller edges. Part of that includes being able to keep from losing that 'little extra' when you can, and you do that by evaluating the hand, not just saying '6-to-1, I have to call with this', take a minute to things things through.