200NL cash - turned straight four cards on board - fold?

Vinetou · #1 09-01-2007, 05:51 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($550)
Button ($253.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button raises to $6, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($12) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $8, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($28) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero raises to $64, Button raises to $239.65,?????

Pretty standard fold, right? He is aggressive but he is not doing this without an 8, I think. So at best I have the same hand as he does. It seems like we have a split pot here at best. I have a hard time laying down that hand. Is this supereasy fold or do you sometimes call here?

Do you prefer just calling the turn and also the river?

jay_shark · #2 09-01-2007, 10:24 AM

I don't want to hijack the thread by I probably fold this pre-flop . Even your call on the flop is a bit iffy .

Ok back to the question .

Here you have to be concerned that he has you tied or possible a hand like k-q for the nut straight .

So if we assume that he either has an 8 or a better hand then the math works out to :

64+8+6=78 ; let x be the percentage of time he shows an 8 . Therefore 1-x is the percentage of time he has the nut straight .

78*x - 175.5*(1-x) >=0
x>=69.2% .

Does he have an 8 around 70% of the time ???

Imo if he had an 8 then he would have overplayed his hand so it looks more like you're behind here .

Vinetou · #3 09-01-2007, 10:34 AM

This is one of my favorite hands preflop. I love suited connectors. You would fold that? Call on the flop was close - I agree. If I didn't have a backdoor flush, I wouldn't do it but backdoor gives you a lot of implied odds because people just can't believe that you turned runner runner!

I am afraid of Q8 and KQ here.

jay_shark · #4 09-01-2007, 10:38 AM

q-8 is another possibility .

I say fold as my final answer .

InfectorGadget · #5 09-01-2007, 10:57 AM

My first post in HU forum, just started my journey as a HU player, so here goes.

Some math (someone please correct me, havent done these much, and I see that jay_shark already did it, just for some training):

Lets say he has KQ or Q8 x times and a bare 8 the rest

(x*-176) + ((1-x)*78) = 0
-176x + 78 - 78x = 0
254x = 78
x = 78/254 => x = 30,7%

So he needs to show a better hand than us 30% of the time for us to fold, and this does not factor in that we might have the best hand some times.

In books like HoH he states that you should add 10% of his range as a bluff. I guess 10% might be a big number here, but you mean to say he almost never bluffs or overplays a hand like two-pair, set, overpair or draw here? Just curious as the dynamics of HU are still kinda confusing to me coming from 6-max NL..

Vinetou · #6 09-01-2007, 12:46 PM

gadget, look at the stacks. He is a smart player and is not overplaying an overpair here.

soop · #7 09-01-2007, 12:56 PM

I would instacall this in the heat of the moment, but I'm not sure it's right so I'm gonna work out the math.

Besides KQ and Q8 you might want to take into consideration other hands that have outs (K8 or two clubs). Also, I'm gonna throw out some hands that I don't think he would be raising with (82,83,84,85o,86o).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,268 games 0.005 secs 853,600 games/sec

Board: Js 7d 9c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.806% 00.00% 34.81% 0 1485.50 { 8s5s }
Hand 1: 65.194% 30.39% 34.81% 1297 1485.50 { 88, A8s, KQs, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 85s+, A8o, KQo, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }

So it's 175.65 (253.65-64-8-6) into a pot of 507.3 (253.65*2), which means you need 34.6 equity to call.

Jesus that's close, but I'm gonna say it's a call. Even if it was a little lower I would still call because people are nuts and maybe you see a rediculous bluff once it awhile.

Nichomacheo · #8 09-01-2007, 01:02 PM

I doubt villain would do this without a higher straight since he also has to fear the higher straight from you.

Vinetou · #9 09-01-2007, 01:02 PM

soop, this guy is not nuts. He posts regularly on FTR and my line looks like a monster so he wouldn't reraise me there without an 8, I am sure he wouldn't.

soop · #10 09-01-2007, 01:28 PM

Right smart villian - but it's still a call if he does this with any 8.

I don't know about the idea that he is fearing a higher staight. KQ would be kind of loose to just call with on the flop and Q8 is kinda loose to call preflop OOP. They don't look like your most likely hands at all.