$60 Turbo- Level 8- AK in BB versus big stack

[ger664]

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You need to fold this

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The fact that bigstack has been very passive during the bubble increases the chance that he has a big hand dramatically. Also, he'd be getting more than 2 to 1 on his call, so those two facts combined -> no FE.

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I would imagine that CLer is raising any pair, any ace, and probably something like KT+. I would also think that he'd interpret our shove as a major sign of strength and would fold a lot of the smaller pairs. Winning this pot (either uncontested or in a showdown) puts us in a great position to abuse the bubble a gain a ton of future EV.

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I am still on the fence on whether this is a fold or a shove.

If villian calls this with a PP at 50% of the time its -1.70% against 45% pot equity when called.

Do you think villian will fold this more often then he will call ?
How much of a -$EV can we take here that we will make up in future hands on the bubble ?

[Paul2432]

I'm in the minority here, but I call. If I miss the flop I check-fold. If I hit and A or K, I check raise all-in. If this opponent is really passive, the hand could even get checked down. I think the odds are too good to fold preflop, but getting all-in and losing is a disaster. If I do fold the flop, I still have a competitive stack going forward.

Paul

[jmill2511]

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Wow only 7xbb left if u win this flip u probably take at least 1st or second, who wants to just make the money.

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loooooooool

[Pudge714]

He needs to be folding a lot or opening a lot to make this shove good, but you might be able to call profitably.

[MATT238]

Glad to see some varying thoughts from people. I was afraid it would be pretty one sided! I did end up shoving the hand, which looking back, I think was a marginal mistake. Big stack did call with QQ and I lost the race. But, I think it's just too big of a hand 4 handed to just throw away, so in a similar situation, I think smooth-calling pre-flop would be the most profitable.

[Chipchucker5]

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Glad to see some varying thoughts from people. I was afraid it would be pretty one sided! I did end up shoving the hand, which looking back, I think was a marginal mistake. Big stack did call with QQ and I lost the race. But, I think it's just too big of a hand 4 handed to just throw away, so in a similar situation, I think smooth-calling pre-flop would be the most profitable.

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FWIW, I REALLY don't like smooth-calling. We're putting in about 1/3 of our chips OOP and we give the big stack the opportunity to play almost perfectly postflop, since an A or K on board is always a red flag.

As far as the results go...you can't put a ton of stock in how the big stack has been playing on this bubble and in this level. It's really a small sample of hands and he can change gears at any point in time. However, if you've played with villain multiple times and you really know he's opening a pretty tight range, you can safely fold this.