Top Pair Facing Turn Raise

[ewile]

SB is 28/10/1.38 over 38 hands

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5SB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, hero calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 9.5BB

Is my position too early to try what is essentially a steal raise with A9o.

Fold to the c/r or the river bet or is calling down OK.

[KitCloudkicker]

eh, small pot, villain aggro on Ace high board vs PFR, i usually fold the turn. theres also no draw he could be semibluffing with.

btw 38 hands is pretty meaningless imo.

and pfr is fine by me. others may disagree.

anyways if you call the turn you're calling the river. just dont call the turn.

[jesse8888]

I like the raise pf, but I fold to the raise on the turn. Board is just too dry for him to not be killing you here.

[James.]

the turn should probably be a b/f. the board is drawless and the pot is small.

if you can't fold the turn if raised, check it. once he peels the flop on such a dry board, you're getting c/r alot(on full tilt anyway).

[ewile]

thanks guys.

[Fnord]

Online I call this down a lot and get shown all sorts of crap often enough to feel good about it.

[flettl2]

I dunno the rest of the table but I usually would fold preflop here. Other than that, think in the opponents mind, would he call a raise preflop out of position with A8 or less? He's probably got you dominated, facing 6.5:1 on the turn you need about 14:1 to hit your 9, fold.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
anyways if you call the turn you're calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, especially since you've pulled ahead of his possible A2/A6.


[ QUOTE ]
Just dont call the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm split between folding and calling down, with a tendency towards the latter for someone on whom I don't have a great read.

[Ricks]

You can probably fold to the turn raise.

There is always some possibility that he could have unexpected hands such as AA,QQ,AK,A7 etc. but I just weighed our outs on the turn assuming the player is fairly straightforward. I even thought about eliminating AQ but I left it in.


66,22,AQs,A6s,A2s,Q6s,Q2s,AQo,A6o,A2o


_____Combos_____Outs
66----- 3_______0=0
22----- 3_______0=0
AQ----- 6_______0=0
A6----- 6_______5=30
A2----- 6_______9=54
Q6s---- 2_______8=16
Q2s---- 2_______8=16

Total__28_______116 116/28 = 4.14 outs


46/4-1 = 10.5:1

1,232 games 0.015 secs 82,133 games/sec

Board: 2s Ac 6h Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 90.828% 90.10% 00.73% 1110 9.00 { 66, 22, AQs, A6s, A2s, Q6s, Q2s, AQo, A6o, A2o }
Hand 1: 09.172% 08.44% 00.73% 104 9.00 { As9c }


---
For those that are interested, there is a new tool in the Software forum HoldEmRanger from a trusted poster, mikechops, that works like PokerStove but allows you to weight combinations even further. For example, we can take the ranges that I have listed above and add the unlikely hands such as AA,QQ, or even AQ,A7 and give them a likely probability of being played.

AA(10),QQ(10),66,22,AQs,A6s,A2s,Q6s,Q2s,AQo(50),A7 (10),A7s(10),A6o,A2o

This would mean that he could have AA or QQ or A7 10% of the time or AQ 50% of the time. The calc is:

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
1,760 evaluations, 40 hole card combos

Board: 2s Ac 6h Qd

Wins Ties Equity
86.82% 0.97% 87.79% ( AA(10),QQ(10),66,22,AQs,A6s,A2s,Q6s,Q2s,AQo(50),A7 (10),A7s(10),A6o,A2o )
11.24% 0.97% 12.21% ( As9c )


You can't select hands like you can in PokerStove but it is easy to copy the the hands from PokerStove and paste them into HoldEmRanger. They seem to work well together.

[Jeffage]

I don't fold this on the Internet typically. Live it would depend on my opponent.

Jeff