Tricky river decision (1/2)

[spackle240]

this is an interesting hand... if i were villain, i would say my range to raise this river is any boat, maybe 5-10% of the time air. i really think you see TT, 44 a substantial amount here and enough to make it a call.

[iggymcfly]

Well, when I was thinking through the hand, I basically eliminated flushes (no way they're gonna value-town that river without at least the ace of spades), and I really think AT, TT, and 44 raise the flop the vast majority of the time. Somehow, I just put my thought process on hold at this point and decided to call anyway.

I really think that 90% of his range is A4, A3 though. Maybe 5% AT and 5% for underfulls. Just from combinations, I'm twice as likely to see A3 as A4. So that means I've got a split 30% of the time, and I'm winning 5%, so my overall equity's only 20%. I think this should definitely have been a fold. People will make terribly stupid bets and terribly stupid calls, but very few will actually raise the river with less than a very narrow range. Even if I add another 5% for crazy, complex bluffs or random donk hands, I still don't have the odds to call.

I think Pete and Rempel pretty much had it covered with the hand ranges. I do think my turn and river bets are fine though. The turn bet's small because I'm probably behind a range of any ace including a possible boat, and I'm still betting enough to price out the draws. On the river, I'm trying to rep a blocking bet to give AK a chance to call as that's really the primary hand I should be worried about getting value from. Best-case scenario is probably that he backs into a low flush with an ace, but even that could fold to a PSB.

Oh, and villain turned over A4 when I called. Kind of a weird spot to slowplay when any ace has 6-9 outs, but what can you do.

[RoundTower]

I think I'm folding, I expect him to have slowplayed AT a lot of the time, a lot of people don't raise there on the flop. Unless you're playing jbird obv, then he probably has 4Txx and can't put you on an overfull.

[Ribbo]

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Oh, and villain turned over A4 when I called. Kind of a weird spot to slowplay when any ace has 6-9 outs, but what can you do.

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He figures you are drawing dead on the turn and he is hoping you bluff the river. You don't have to have the case ace yourself.

[jbird]

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Unless you're playing jbird obv, then he probably has 4Txx and can't put you on an overfull.


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let me be in my suckiness

[-DJM-]

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Do you really think AT flat-calls the flop here? I'm much more worried about A4 than AT in this spot.

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Yes. I don't see villian repoting here in position. You are betting into him and potting would kill the action if you dont have a hand. My guess villian has A10 with another face card and wants to let another card peel off hoping you take another stab. Regardless what comes on the river, villian is calling or wants to extract value.