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#1
08-29-2007, 03:45 PM
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10NL AA facing turn aggression
Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $11.32 Hero (BB): $11.01 UTG: $14.98 CO: $17.65 BTN: $14.76 Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 35/12/1.57 over 190 hands</font> Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players) 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, SB calls $0.40 Flop: ($1) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.00</font>, SB calls $1.00 Turn: ($3) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $9.82</font>, Hero ??? So what do we think...Did he just hit a monster? Is he bluffing? Do I hold onto my rockets like they are made out of gold or bow to the Theorem of the Almighty Baluga? The 9 is not really much of a scare card so I have a hard time putting him on a bluff here. Do we think a villain with a Total AF of 1.57 (1.00 on the Turn) does this with anything that we are beating? 
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#4
08-29-2007, 04:19 PM
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Re: 10NL AA facing turn aggression
Your pf aggression in the blinds may be important here. if you don't raise much in blind v blind situations, then villains pf calling range is likely to be narrower and therefore a set is more likely. It is also possible he has KK or QQ and did not reraise or raise preflop.
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#5
08-29-2007, 05:31 PM
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Re: 10NL AA facing turn aggression
The only thing I don't like about using the bvB as a factor here is that I would have expected pushback on the flop. Maybe we can say he hit his 9 and figures I am not holding a T?
You are right about the 2:1. This makes it a much tougher spot to fold.
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