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#42
08-29-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
Just wondering...if we flat call here we set ourselves up to get squeezed by the SB or the BB...OP didn't mention any reads on them, but we are calling shoves from them if Zralok folds right?
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#43
08-29-2007, 03:35 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering...if we flat call here we set ourselves up to get squeezed by the SB or the BB...OP didn't mention any reads on them, but we are calling shoves from them if Zralok folds right? [/ QUOTE ] Snap call the BB. SB is almost 30x BB deep, so I would lean towards folding against his shove although I could easily be convinced otherwise. If I know him to be pocket fives ranked for example, I would probably switch my default to call.
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#45
08-29-2007, 06:23 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
[ QUOTE ]
Wait what? Our plan is to call and just call off UI on any board that's unlikely to have hit him (when his range is like ATC)? That sounds horrible. [/ QUOTE ] What do UI and ATC mean?
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#47
08-29-2007, 06:29 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
[ QUOTE ]
Wait what? Our plan is to call and just call off UI on any board that's unlikely to have hit him (when his range is like ATC)? That sounds horrible. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not saying I will never raise when I think I have the best hand, and I'm not saying I will never bluff when I think my opponent has a smallish pair. But yes, I will just call a c-bet on the vast majority of flops. This is mostly because it sucks when we get 3 bet, and our opponent is aggro enough that we can assume he will be 3 betting us with as little as a gut shot and an overcard. Edit: Our positional advantage is greatly diminished when we give our opponent a chance to close the action with an all-in semi bluff.
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#48
08-29-2007, 08:37 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] and you're going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Again. Ace high has butt loads of value here. We don't need to hit the flop. [ QUOTE ] Are those of you who advocate a call going to float every missed flop? [/ QUOTE ] No. You float with air. We have a hand that has value. We call the flop because we think our hand is best. Not because we plan on bluffing with ace high later. [ QUOTE ] If so, you are turning AQ into a delayed rather than immediate bluff, and you're putting your whole stack at risk to do so. [/ QUOTE ] See above. [/ QUOTE ] Justin: These statements by you boil down to an assertion that Hero is usually still ahead if he misses the flop, which is the linchpin of your argument. I don't think this is correct. I don't have the technology to run simulations to prove this conclusively, but I did run some PokerStove calculations with AQo vs. a random hand (giving Villain the widest possible range) on some random flops which missed AQo, and AQo's equity seems to fluctuate between 54 and 46 percent. Here are two examples, including one where AQo is behind: --- 12,842,280 games 0.531 secs 24,185,084 games/sec Board: Ts 6c 4h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.419% 50.88% 00.54% 6534414 68985.00 { AQo } Hand 1: 48.581% 48.04% 00.54% 6169896 68985.00 { random } --- --- 12,842,280 games 0.156 secs 82,322,307 games/sec Board: 7s 6c 4h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.790% 44.05% 01.74% 5656905 223563.00 { AQo } Hand 1: 54.210% 52.47% 01.74% 6738249 223563.00 { random } --- Thus, if Villain's range is tighter than random, if AQo misses the flop, it is going to be a little behind his range.
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#49
08-29-2007, 08:45 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] and you're going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Again. Ace high has butt loads of value here. We don't need to hit the flop. [ QUOTE ] Are those of you who advocate a call going to float every missed flop? [/ QUOTE ] No. You float with air. We have a hand that has value. We call the flop because we think our hand is best. Not because we plan on bluffing with ace high later. [ QUOTE ] If so, you are turning AQ into a delayed rather than immediate bluff, and you're putting your whole stack at risk to do so. [/ QUOTE ] See above. [/ QUOTE ] Justin: These statements by you boil down to an assertion that Hero is usually still ahead if he misses the flop, which is the linchpin of your argument. I don't think this is correct. I don't have the technology to run simulations to prove this conclusively, but I did run some PokerStove calculations with AQo vs. a random hand (giving Villain the widest possible range) on some random flops which missed AQo, and AQo's equity seems to fluctuate between 54 and 46 percent. Here are two examples, including one where AQo is behind: --- 12,842,280 games 0.531 secs 24,185,084 games/sec Board: Ts 6c 4h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.419% 50.88% 00.54% 6534414 68985.00 { AQo } Hand 1: 48.581% 48.04% 00.54% 6169896 68985.00 { random } --- --- 12,842,280 games 0.156 secs 82,322,307 games/sec Board: 7s 6c 4h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.790% 44.05% 01.74% 5656905 223563.00 { AQo } Hand 1: 54.210% 52.47% 01.74% 6738249 223563.00 { random } --- Thus, if Villain's range is tighter than random, if AQo misses the flop, it is going to be a little behind his range. [/ QUOTE ] I've looked through what you've written, and a lot of it's wrong. Also, ur going to be worse off vs. a random range than one that has a lot of high cards in them on that T64r flop for example. Since a lot of those 4x/6x/Tx hands that are in the random range (which have us as a 3 to 1 dog) are not in a more realistic range. Also, we do not need to be 50%+ vs. his range, as we are getting overlay from the pot.
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#50
08-29-2007, 08:46 PM
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Re: 3 bet gets 4 bet deep in Sunday Million
Todd...
For starters... pot odds. Not folding when 50/50 with money already in the pot. Nuff said. Secondly, we have position. Third, we won't always miss the flop. It's simple Todd. Like I said before. We are way ahead of his range. We have a hand that is easy to play post flop. And we have position. That's 3 huge advantages. Even if we only play reasonably well against him after the flop, our equity is huge. Obviously it sucks if we miss the flop, but if the worse case scenario is we are 50/50 vs his range, then I'm happy.
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