Donkey Test

[DrewTheHead]

what is a good score on this thing?

[Fiepoto]

What does "your reverse implied odds are terrible" mean?

[JPajamas]

Or, "what good are pocket aces?" Unanimous to this point...

[Lego05]

I dunno. I got a 127. So they say I should be medium stakes cash pro and tournament pro and should be beating 200NL-600NL and winning at tournaments. I'm a regular at the 50NL games on Stars. I'm beating them solidly and could probably be beating 100NL. I'm not sure about 200NL and I'm like definitely not +ev above that.

[Fiepoto]

5/10 NL. $1,500 stacks. 9 handed. A tight aggressive middle position player raises to $40. Another tight aggressive player on the button re-raises to $140. You're in the big blind with:
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

What should you do? Your image is tight aggressive, but you were recently caught bluffing.

[gedanken]

this is not a good situation for big slick. We'll be out of position, and won't be chasing anyone out with a cbet on a low flop [since we were recently caught bluffing].

AK plays really well getting money in preflop generally, but this is a worst case scenario. MP's raise range isn't scaring us, but Button's 3bet range is more of a threat.

raising isn't so good here. If we re-up it to $450 or all-in, we're only getting action from the two hands we fear, KK and AA. We're not ahead enough of 3-better's range to profit from a shove.

We could call now, and fold to further betting. But if the flop misses us, we'll be folding. The flop will not bring an A or K 3/4 of the time. Probably even less often here, because one of the other players is more likely than usual to hold one or more aces or kings.

Our implied odds suck, because QQ isn't giving us any action on a A-high or K-high flop. [edit: well, maybe since we recently bluffed...]

so by calling, we're risking $130 to win about <$1600 <1/4 of the time, and losing upwards of $1500 some percentage of the time when our TPTK runs into a set. Pot will be $300+ on the flop, so I think a lot of our money goes in if we hit on an otherwise ragged board.

I've talked myself into folding. Being out of position sucks more than you normally think.

[shortbuyRN]

nice analysis....wish I could be better at practicing it IRL...I have a hard time laying down AK pre-flop...and it does frequently cost!!!

[ev_slave]

I've been pretty busy lately, so I'm just catching up with a lot of the more recent discussion, and it sucks that I've missed out on some interesting questions.

I think on the latest two, everyone on this forum knows what reverse implied odds means, and knows that AKo isn't a hand to take to war OOP against a 3-bet. I'd like to add one bit of discussion to the question before those with the As4s top pair.

Your raising range from LP is pretty wide and isn't restricted to various Aces. BB could be calling with something like QJ, KJ, JT. If he bets 2nd pair, he has to fold to a raise, but he knows that LP raiser will 1) remain unpaired on flop ~65% of the time, and 2) C-Bet often whether you hit or miss. I think there's a strong case that he's CRing with 2nd pair to find out where he is. If you call, he may lead on the Turn, but then he may believe you have the Ace, and c/f.

Based on that, I don't know if the Call / Fold to strong turn bet (we can't call twice... we do only have one pair after all) is better than raising. Both should achieve the same result if he has something like KJ, but maybe you can get him to fold something like A8o with the raise. So there's probably value in raising by inducing a "mistake" on occasion, but it's also a much more expensive option. I'd probably call / fold to strong turn bet.

[ev_slave]

Apparently I killed the post? Next question then?

[JPajamas]

Everyone took Labour Day (Labor Day for my American friends) off, hopefully back on track Tuesday...THREE QUESTIONS LEFT!!! COME ON...GIT ER DUN!!! EH!!