Week 1 NCAA plays and leans

[NajdorfDefense]

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Miami down to -18. Hope it reaches -17 or lower...I hear the players are really responding to Shannon.

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Freeman in at QB, Shields suspended for a week. I'd pass if you're not on it yet.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Makes sense. I would for sure like Idaho if they were using last year's rules on the clock which shortened the game, but with the change back to the old rules this year USC may score enough. I don't know, it's hard to judge their offense without having seen how the new receivers and new tailbacks play. I know the majority like USC because the line is moving that way, but I still lean toward Idaho so I'll bet it after the line moves.

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Idaho available at +47 on Bodog now...I'd hit that if you want that side

[Hurricane31]

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Miami down to -18. Hope it reaches -17 or lower...I hear the players are really responding to Shannon.

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Hey Najdorf, Ive noticed youve posted a couple of items on Miami so you seem to follow them at least for betting purposes, so do you like UM -17 with WR Sam Shields(possibly the best on team) suspended for the opener?

[Donk4Life]

Bully, Bully, Bully.

Texas -39 vs. Arkansas State

Texas enjoy punishing weak teams for taking a money game. I'm sure Arkansas State will be no different. Texas has covered their last 4 openers and the last time they did not cover against a second tier conference team was against Rice. Look for Texas to score at least 50 points. The only question is how much will they allow ASU to score.

[Grasshopp3r]

How about CSU vs. CU?

The current line at bodog is CSU +3 (-120) or CU -3 (even). CSU has a senior QB and CU is starting the coaches' son at QB. With so many question marks on both teams, I am leaning towards taking the points with CSU.

Also, I may go to the game.

[Hurricane31]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Miami down to -18. Hope it reaches -17 or lower...I hear the players are really responding to Shannon.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hey Najdorf, Ive noticed youve posted a couple of items on Miami so you seem to follow them at least for betting purposes, so do you like UM -17 with WR Sam Shields(possibly the best on team) suspended for the opener?

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Wow never saw your last post. Lol nm.

[MicroBob]

Not really liking Memphis +3 at all although this game has been pretty close the past few years.

I don't really believe too much in Memphis' home-field advantage at the Liberty Bowl. My hunch is that there could be more Ole Miss fans in there than Tigers' fans.
Not sure if Steele ratings or whatever fully consider that home-field for this game might not be as strong an advantage.

Thought Memphis really overachieved last year to hang around vs. Miss and then showed more of their true self in future games where they were just lousy.

Think Ole Miss is a tad underrated and they competed extremely well with some good SEC teams last year.
3-6 point losses to LSU, AUB, ALA, UGA.

Memphis shouldn't be as terrible as they were last year but I think they get manhandled in this one.

Definitely like Miss in this one. Especially at -2.5.
Yes, I realize I might be going against the sharps on this one.

[MicroBob]

Liking Miami, Ohio +6.
They underachieved so badly last year and should be improved this season. I think there should be some value there.
Ball State had a strong finish to 2006 though to get to 5-7 and one of those losses was their near upset at Michigan so that concerns me some. But I just don't think they're as good as some think they are...and those people didn't think they were that good to begin with.

Miami was terrible last year but even with how bad they were a lot of their losses were close ones. Ball State only beat them by 3 in Oxford last year.
Their offensive-line was awful but part of that was due to injuries.
I really don't think they are going to be as bad as they were last season.
2-9 last season came mostly due to key turnovers at bad times in their close games and I expect them to hang onto the ball a bit better this year.
Last yr they lost by 3 to BSU, 3 to NIU, 2 to KSU, 7 to Purdue in OT.

Iowa State -4 and LSU -18 are my other picks.
That LSU line was better earlier but I didn't jump on it then.

I simply expect Kent State to suck this year after overachieving for much of last season and then falling apart late.
Their special-teams were absolutely brutal and I don't know if they're going to get better.

Maybe Kent State can hang around against a so-so Big 12 team but I very much believe there is a better than 55% chance that ISU just blows them out of the water very much in the same way Minnesota crushed them 44-0 in their season-opener last yr.

ISU has a new coach who has brought in a load of Juco transfers and they may have a new atmosphere in there.
Definite turn-around potential for this team I think.


Also took GT at ND even though it's only +2.5 now.

[dmoney416]

Ok, The Greek finally added their totals and some of the 1H lines, so here is my Week 1 card as of now:

Thursday/Friday:
No plays

Saturday:

Troy +26.5 (3.3u to win 3) - write-up above
Western Michigan/West Virginia Over 54.5 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Army/Akron Under 44 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up above
UAB/Michigan St Under 50 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up coming
Iowa -11 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up above
Texas -22 (1st Half) (1.65u to win 1.5) -

Monday:

FSU -2 (-120) (2.4u to win 2) -


Still considering:
Central Florida +8.5 and ML +300
TCU/Baylor Under 46.5
Georgia Tech +3 (-120)


So 7 plays thus far. Road teams, unders, and a disturbing lack of Thursday/Friday degenerate/action plays.

[NajdorfDefense]

degen play Rutgers u50.5 or better