controversial opinion about uselessness of online poker

[rafiki]

negraneau had a period of something like 6-9 months were all he did was lose. 20k is only 20 buy ins at NL 1000$. You can dump 20 buy ins in a nice downswing. that's all I'm saying...

[JLimbs]

I am confused, your previous post made on 8/20 made it sound like you were a 2-5 NL player and that you were soon hoping to move up to 5-10 NL. Now a week later you come back and say you are a winning 10-25 NL player.

Are you really basing your entire financial future on a sample size of 1 week of live play? I have played a lot of live poker and I think you are a little wrong about what Casino 10-25 NL games are usually like.

Yes there are often rich tourists in town for the weekend donating their money. However the other players that regular games that high are usally other sharks. Your profit in the bigger live cash games will mostly come from avoiding the sharks and going after the fish.

It sounds easy when you say it like that, but doing it consistently in deep stack games against the best players in the casino is no small task.

I agree with what some have said managing your expectations. Hopefully your success will continue, but I think its going to take more time to really get an idea for whether or not you will beat in these games in the long run.

-Jerry

[Poker_is_Hard]

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haha I look forward to the poker gods blasting you with the wrath of all hell when you ask for a downswing.....

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I don't get why everyone on this forum is so scared of a temporary bankroll dip. "Ooh, I lost some money I am so sad I will go home and cry and eat ice cream." Downswing, shmownswing. Probably won't happen for a long time, but when it does I promise a report.

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the best part is how much poker wisdom you can ignore in one forum. I say this is a level. Can't be real.

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I was kind of trying to be funny, but I also really feel that way. I mean, I have a big enough bankroll, and I've lost money before and know what it feels like, so if I lose again no big deal. If my winrate turns out to be less than what I expected, no big deal. That's all I'm sayin'.

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What is your bank roll?

Will you also be living off of this money?

[warrantofice]

I'm no pro, i just play online regularly with the occasional live trip...seriously, i almost didn't post this because i was going to let you learn on your own but i felt perhaps some other person has the same distorted view of reality as you do but hopefully they will see the light before its to late.

You really haven't played anywhere nearly enough poker to even begin to think about playing full time. If you don't think a downswing will hurt at the 1000nl than you either have a lot of money and are not actually trying to earn a living or your completely mistaken. Your also saying this only having played on weekends...i don't know how you think that its the same as 1pm on a monday. Do you have a seperate account...alright i don't care any more do what you want and if you succeed man, well hell, you sure beat the odds.

[UATrewqaz]

Live games are typically much softer up to a much higher level... I don't think this is news to anyone.

What matters of course is your rate per hour.

AKA if you can 4 table online and be marginally profitable at 4 tougher tables, it may make as much, if not more, than playing at 1 really super juicy table live (where you see very few hands per hour).

[McStinky]

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I am confused, your previous post made on 8/20 made it sound like you were a 2-5 NL player and that you were soon hoping to move up to 5-10 NL. Now a week later you come back and say you are a winning 10-25 NL player.

Are you really basing your entire financial future on a sample size of 1 week of live play? I have played a lot of live poker and I think you are a little wrong about what Casino 10-25 NL games are usually like.

Yes there are often rich tourists in town for the weekend donating their money. However the other players that regular games that high are usally other sharks. Your profit in the bigger live cash games will mostly come from avoiding the sharks and going after the fish.

It sounds easy when you say it like that, but doing it consistently in deep stack games against the best players in the casino is no small task.

I agree with what some have said managing your expectations. Hopefully your success will continue, but I think its going to take more time to really get an idea for whether or not you will beat in these games in the long run.

-Jerry

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I'm not sure what I said to make everyone think I am some naive fool who will never make it. I am not just starting to play poker. I have been playing (up to 5/10 NL live) and studying for a few years, and I am a decent player. I decided to go pro a couple months ago and warmed up with 2/5 NL. Now I am at 5/10 NL and have my sights set on 10/25 NL eventually. I have savings so my bankroll is plenty big enough for a big downswing, and I have done a lot to make myself prepared emtionally for the inevitable swings I will encounter. I am going to try to play lots of weekend days, though I will be playing weekdays too. And yes, there are tons of fools playing 5/10 NL at Foxwoods and even the regulars have some big leaks in their game. My expectation of success is based on this and not on the meaningless sample size I have so far. Don't know what my win rate will be, but from my experience and what I have read on the forums I think it will be a solid one. What the heck am I missing here? Why don't believe that poker can be really easy and stress-free if you take the right approach?

[Dominic]

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1) Play 5-10NL at fox
2) just let people throw money at you
3) make 1000$ every day
4) ???
5) profit

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Haha, I can't tell if you are mocking me or not, but this is literally how it works. Really.

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listen man, fact is if you're going to make 1000$ every day at 5/10, nailing down 14bb/hour, or some 35bb/100 AFTER the rake, then you have solved the matrix, and don't need to be posting on here with silly forums. At 35bb/100, move into the casino, pimp hoes on the side, profit. the end.

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OK, maybe I'm way off. On the weekdays who knows. But on weekends, playing against a bunch of fools, why shouldn't a good player be able to average one buy-in over a full 14 hour day? Doesn't seem too crazy. I admit I don't have data to back it up yet.

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McStinky, I also like live playing a lot better than online. however, the reason why it won't be as easy as you think is because you are only playing one table - have you ever lost 3 buy-ins in one session when you're at a table full of morons? Very frustrating.

Online when I'm 8-tabling my daily profit comes from playing well and not having to run through horrible streaks like that. Because on one table I might be down a buy-in, on another up 4 buy-ins, and so on. Do bad runs happen? Yes, of course. But variance is mitigated by the multi-tabling.

If you have a bad couple of days live - and it does happen even to the best of players - your bankroll takes a big, big hit.

Unless you're over-rolled, of course.

[rafiki]

He doesn't seem to want to mention his roll. I suspect it's not sufficient...

[pacecar86]

McStinky: "....Downswing, shmownswing. Probably won't happen for a long time, but when it does I promise a report."

Suggested reading if you have not already done so, Chen's Math of Poker, chapter 23 "Adding Undcertainty: Risk of Ruin With Uncertain Win Rates"

individual downswings are a certainty, as are upswings, obv, but the real point is to make sure some prudent amount of uncertainty is dialed in to estimates of win rate, net of living expenses/rake/etc, before you can take it to the bank, over the long term, or BR is exposed to 100% risk of ruin at a higher probability than you might imagine

[pocketpared]

Let's not forget the gut wrenching flus you can catch playing live at a table full of gamblers so degenerate God forbid they miss a weekend worth of gambling even when they're sick and contagious. I'm currently in the throes of one caught this last weekend and it was the final straw, along with 3 hours one way driving in traffic, that finally made me set up an online account.
"What I love about poker is sizing people up, table talk, tells, etc. I guess I will still use online for training, but I can't shake the feeling that the "real" game takes place in the casino."