NL50: AA OOP. Too passive here?

[AlexB182]

Villain is pretty strange, 47/21/0.9 over only 51 hands. Seems to be really loose but rather passive, I pushed him off his hands several times.

Main Question: did I miss the second barrel on turn here? I'll include my thoughts during the hand this time.
Any comments welcome, thanks a lot in advance!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($41.50)
Hero ($55.75)
MP1 ($25.30)
MP2 ($111.05)
MP3 ($47.95)
CO ($49.40)
Button ($27.65)
SB ($48.25)
BB ($28.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Standard raise here, I guess we can't choose in which postion we get our Aces. I raise to 4 BB cause thats my normal size when opening the pot with a raise and I don't want go give away my hands with smaller or larger hand dependent bets.

Flop: ($6.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, MP1 calls $6, MP2 folds.

Standard CB, flop is a bit scary here IMO and I have to make possible draws pay.

Turn: ($18.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

It starts getting tricky. IMO, a FD is def in his range.
Checking is maybe too passive here, but I don't want to get pushed of my off hand when he raises big.
When he just instachecks behind, I'm planning to bet close to every river card, he didn't seem to be very tricky so far, so I can't see him slowplaying a made flush

River: ($18.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 bets 10.50$, Hero?

Ok, so that was about the only card I did not want to see. In fact, I don't see a hand now that he called my PF raise and my CB with that I still beat.

Any comments very welcome! <font color="blue"> </font>

[keepitreal]

ur analysis is right on in that u dont beat anything. the turn is the worst draw card in the deck and the river is awful too. obvious fold for me.

as for betting the turn or not...i'd probably check myself but betting is definitely arguable cuz a hand like AhQx is obviously a possibility and letting it see a free card is less than ideal. but again, worst draw card in the deck makes it hard to want to bet.

bottom line, u got away from a hand where u only beat a bluff for only 8 bucks where if u overplay AA u lose anywhere from 18 to 26 to your stack...

[mmctrab]

I'm not folding this. I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that by checking the turn and river your villain thinks you have whiffed overcards. I doubt villain has a Q. You could be up against a flush, but I think there's a good chance your hand is still good here. You can either bet/fold the river, or check/call the river.

[achtzhen]

From the description of him being a passive player this makes is seem like a fold is a good idea on the river.

I must say im an advocate of betting the turn though. Your playing against a short stack. He has 17.30 left on the turn. I like a 1/2 pot bet here but you could go as low as seven (due to playing against a short stack). If he calls I would easily put him on a queen and think im finally getting something from AA. Then do the ritual of cursing the river card after I thought I knew the pot was mine.

Shorty shoves turn I say fold the turn.

The river is what got u this time.

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not folding this. I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that by checking the turn and river your villain thinks you have whiffed overcards. I doubt villain has a Q. You could be up against a flush, but I think there's a good chance your hand is still good here. You can either bet/fold the river, or check/call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's a passive player betting the river. what do you possibly beat?

the straight, flush, tp got there.

passive players aren't typically betting bottom/middle pair on the river.

i guess he could have KK?

[Raised2Win]

u dont have the Ah so it makes flush more likely and since the river is also terrible u only beat a hand that called you on flop that didn't want to represent hearts but wanted to represent queens, Which makes no sense. FOLD

[mmctrab]

A read over 51 hands is pretty worthless in my opinion. The passive way that hero played the hand is setting him up to get bluffed out of the pot. Villain only bets the river after hero checks the turn and river. Villain can have a pocket pair that calls preflop, calls a flop bet, and then takes a stab at the pot on the river after hero checks the turn and river.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
A read over 51 hands is pretty worthless in my opinion. The passive way that hero played the hand is setting him up to get bluffed out of the pot. Villain only bets the river after hero checks the turn and river. Villain can have a pocket pair that calls preflop, calls a small flop bet, and then takes a stab at the pot on the river after hero checks the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Small flop bet?

[mmctrab]

Yeah, it's a normal sized flop bet. My bad. It doesn't change anything though.

[AlexB182]

NP. I just think the theory that he's floating around with a smaller PP doesn't fit when he calls such a flop bet.