#1
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Combo draw played strong on the flop, faces raise by probable set
Newbie taking a shot at NL$100; this is my first post after a brief stint in uNL.
This hand occurred during my first 30 hands at the table. Villain had limped in a few times, never raised pf, nothing to note postflop. I'd taken down a few small pots with uncontested c-bets and won one medium-sized pot when another villain called my large turn bet with a gutshot and whiffed on the river. My thinking on the flop was to make a 2/3 pot bet b/c that had been the size of my flop bets on previous hands, possibly allowing me to disguise my hand as a steal attempt. I planned to estimate my fold equity on later streets if called and the turn missed me. With any luck, the button would fold, giving me position. Here's what happened instead: PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($102.50) UTG ($118.95) <font color="#C00000">Heroine ($146.95)</font> <font color="#C00000">Button ($105.05)</font> SB ($100) Preflop: Heroine is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3</font>, Heroine calls $3, Button calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2. Flop: ($12.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Heroine bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $30</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, <font color="blue">Heroine?</font> With about $50 in the pot and $72 behind, I think I'm best calling here and hoping for one of my 11 pretty good outs on the turn (thinking the 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is too dangerous to bet). Given the board texture and Villain's pf call, this smells a lot more like a set than anything else, and if it is, Villain is not folding to an all-in reraise. Opinions? |
#2
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Re: Combo draw played strong on the flop, faces raise by probable set
I'd just push it here, you'd be surprised how often the villain has an overpair (then even if they call you're a slight favorite), 67, even 57, or the occasional connected spade overcards. Even against a set you've still got about 32% equity, so I think you have to be pretty sure he has a set to just call here.
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#3
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Re: Combo draw played strong on the flop, faces raise by probable set
Callings sucks big because you have no position to extract if you hit and are most likely facing a nearly uncallable bet on the turn if you whiff (which you will do like >75% of the time). Surely Sets are in buttons range, but so are at least some other hands to give you enough FE and/or equity if called if you push now. This hand really needs to played on the flop and not on later streets where you will either lose equity or costumers.
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#4
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Re: Combo draw played strong on the flop, faces raise by probable set
I shove here, but I always over-estimate the amount of fold equity I have when semi-bluffing. I also suck at drawing out.
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#5
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Re: Combo draw played strong on the flop, faces raise by probable set
I push, IP I'll call.
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