#11
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
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[ QUOTE ] i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we not considering the possibility of the villain having a higher flush draw? [/ QUOTE ] because he wouldn't call with a higher flush draw? |
#12
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
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i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think that villain here is going to be pushed off of his hand here. Hero has been busy and probably doesn't have a tight image. I think villain is too likely to rely on his "read" (guess) that hero has a flush draw and make a cowboy call with any pair. He'd have guessed right and hero will be in a lot of trouble. |
#13
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
Fold and pick a better spot.
So you let go of 700, but its only about 2x bb. At these blinds there is essentially no difference between 4000 and 4700 in chips. There was a reason you only raised 700 and not the pot and that reason is this: You we're willing to let it go in case you got called. Also it's perfectly fine for the villain (already big stack) to get a little bigger. Puts more pressure on the little guys to panic. SNG are all about survival, survival, survival! |
#14
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
shapshove not close. bubble, have outs, he doesnt lead anything strong, etc. he is bet/folding. so shove it in.
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#15
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
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[ QUOTE ] I don't think you have the implied odds as he'll be careful giving away his stack on the bubble. [/ QUOTE ] That' doesn't make too much sense. He's calling raises from the chipleader when he's in 2nd and it's the bubble. Insta classification as a donk - albeit a donk with a king in his hand... [/ QUOTE ] Hero raised on the button as the big stack, villain's calling range is pretty wide. Just because he called a preflop raise in the BB doesn't make him a donk. Also, I don't care who you're playing against, implied odds are smaller on the bubble. |
#16
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
I think villain is too likely to rely on his "read" (guess) that hero has a flush draw and make a cowboy call with any pair. this is almost never going to happen. |
#17
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
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I think villain is too likely to rely on his "read" (guess) that hero has a flush draw and make a cowboy call with any pair. this is almost never going to happen. [/ QUOTE ] Why is this almost never going to happen? Low level players love to bust bluffs on the bubble, especially when it seems plausible that hero could be on a flush draw, and by pushing all in you scream flush draw. |
#18
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
I don't think over-pushing screams flush draw; not to me anyways, it screams TP, maybe AQ, QK, or even a set, that wants to extract maximum value from a flush draw. I mean who would be crazy enough to risk his stack on the bubble with a 4:1 draw?? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
I'm not sure what to make of the lead flop bet. It is most likely a donk bet with some kind of draw or a pocket pair that is speculating, but it can also be a clever trap, for the simple reason that it sets off the alarms bells discussed above and sometimes induces a big over-push. I would have to have a good read on this guy being solid to give him credit for that though. Otherwise I don't mind the push idea. If he's got a better FD he "should" fold it, and in fact you'd expect him to fold everything but TPTK or better... which I don't believe he has because even a donk knows to c-raise with these hands here versus an aggressive opponent. I think he folds enough to make this +EV. |
#19
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
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shapshove not close. bubble, have outs, he doesnt lead anything strong, etc. he is bet/folding. so shove it in. [/ QUOTE ] QFT push the donkbet ever! |
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