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#1
08-27-2007, 03:41 PM
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($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament Blinds: t150/t300 4 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: t2520 Hero: t4720 SB: t1860 BB: t4400 Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t700</font>, SB folds, BB calls t400 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1150)</font>. Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1550, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">BB bets t800</font>, Hero? I was pretty busy lately, busting a player when I raised to steal with KTs, he pushed and I got nice odds to call. This is the very next hand, the blinds went up. Well, the villain is not a donk actually, but definitely on the looser side and I'm not sure he completely understands what he is doing and what he should be doing... 
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#2
08-27-2007, 04:06 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
I let this go. He gave you 2:1 when you're 4:1 to hit on the next street, and he can price you out again on the next street. Raising puts you in harms way, as this is a flop he hits often, and what are you hoping he has, TJo? He could be probing with like TT, but it costs you too much to find out. Pick a better spot.
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#3
08-27-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
Easy fold, you tried to win the pot preflop and didn't succeed. Now you're being given improper odds to draw to your flush, I don't think you have the implied odds as he'll be careful giving away his stack on the bubble.
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#4
08-27-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
Sorry, my odds above may have been a tiny bit off, but I think the logic holds true. Basically, you don't want to be drawing in a STT on the bubble, and I think raising screws you.
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#5
08-27-2007, 04:31 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have the implied odds as he'll be careful giving away his stack on the bubble. [/ QUOTE ] That' doesn't make too much sense. He's calling raises from the chipleader when he's in 2nd and it's the bubble. Insta classification as a donk - albeit a donk with a king in his hand...
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#6
08-27-2007, 05:39 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.
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#7
08-27-2007, 06:00 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
[ QUOTE ]
He's calling raises from the chipleader when he's in 2nd and it's the bubble. Insta classification as a donk - albeit a donk with a king in his hand... [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't classify him as a donk just because he called a small raise from the BB when hes practically tied with the chipleader + we have no idea how often Hero has been raising. I would have folded this hand preflop but as played I think you have to shove.
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#8
08-27-2007, 06:32 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn. [/ QUOTE ] Winner.
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#9
08-27-2007, 06:38 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn. [/ QUOTE ] He might be protect/charging against the flush draw with a king. For a shove to be +$EV we need donk to fold 60% of the time here if hero has ~37% equity. Can you get a donk to release here that often ? The following are the $EV figures for the % of times that villian calls. 20% => +3.70% 30% => +2.03% 40% => +0.35% 50% => -1.32% 60% => -3.00% 70% => -4.67% 80% => -6.34% I think you can push here if u think villian is folding < 50% of the time. You should make up the -$EV between 40% - 50% by been able to pwn the bubble the times that villian folds.
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#10
08-27-2007, 09:04 PM
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Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we not considering the possibility of the villain having a higher flush draw?
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