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#12
08-27-2007, 07:05 PM
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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
Because the majority of his range is pairs that will call a bet (this is like the no 1 way to make money at SSNL - people call too much), but check behind if we check and flush draws (which don't bluff the river nearly as often as you think. Saying they definitely bet river is ridiculously naive). He doesn't turn up with Qx as much as the midpairs given turn and river and the fact it would be the case Q. Also checking and betting are pretty similar vs Qx anyway since they are raising if we lead like half-pot anyway.
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#13
08-27-2007, 07:14 PM
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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
[ QUOTE ]
Because the majority of his range is pairs that will call a bet (this is like the no 1 way to make money at SSNL - people call too much), but check behind if we check and flush draws (which don't bluff the river nearly as often as you think. Saying they definitely bet river is ridiculously naive). He doesn't turn up with Qx as much as the midpairs given turn and river and the fact it would be the case Q. Also checking and betting are pretty similar vs Qx anyway since they are raising if we lead like half-pot anyway. [/ QUOTE ] No sure, they far from always bluff the river, but that doesn't matter because they are never calling a bet either, so the best line against a FD is without doubt to check. And I disagree that Qx is raising a third barrel on this flop always, but i think they bet very often if we check. I still like the c/r better..
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#15
08-27-2007, 07:38 PM
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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
[ QUOTE ]
Why does c/r suck? FD are bluffing, Queens are bet/calling or bet/folding FH's are bet/calling or bet/raising 22-66 are checking behind, but prob folding to a bet anyways. 99-TT are prob bet/folding, maybe checking behind a pair of 8's or 7's are sometimes bet/folding, sometimes checking behind. [/ QUOTE ] c/r only gets value from FD's Qx shouldnt be in his range since he needs to raise it flop or turn and almost always does. FH's have almost always raised flop or turn, but c/r is really good if he rivers a set, which is almost never. 22-66 are checking behind, but sometimes calling 1/2 pot. 99-TT are checking behind, and calling 1/2 pot a lot. QQ77 and QQ88 are checking behing, and usually calling 1/2 pot. People dont bet medium stength hands here. They check behind. However, they do call if they think we are FOS, as we easily could be on this board.
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#17
08-27-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
Just bet here, probably like $33. Riall is right--there are a ton of hands that are basically bluffcatchers that will call a bet but will rarely get bet for value if we check. A queen seems fairly unlikely based on the action so far, and might not even call a big river check-raise in this spot. Most of the time he has a hand that won't bet, or, if it does, won't call a check raise, so against those hands checking is way worse than just betting.
Hands that would bet and call a check raise are the strong slowplayed Q's or a smaller boat. Boats are very very likely to raise the river if we bet anyway and we can get all in simply by leading the river (actually, probably easier because a c-rai on the river is going to be a huge bet, but if we lead and get raised less than a push no one will ever get away when we push for the last bit of money). The only hand that a check raise seems best against is a slowplayed queen, which I think we see pretty rarely given action so far. A flush draw might bluff sometimes, but nowhere near enough to make up for the value we lose to hands that will check behind if we check but would have called a better. In a limped pot on a board like this, my experience is that people use almost any pair as a bluffcatcher given your actions, so I think you'll get paid a LOT here by just valuebetting. JR's point about the #1 mistake being people call too much is so true in a spot like this and we can easily exploit that mistake here. Bet bet bet.
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#18
08-27-2007, 07:58 PM
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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
WTF? This is like the easiest C/R ever.
1)FD bricked 2)possible idiot gutter w/ 56 2)worse Qx is almost forced to bet 3)one pair hands aren't necessarily calling a bet anyways
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#19
08-27-2007, 08:19 PM
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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
[ QUOTE ]
WTF? This is like the easiest C/R ever. 1)FD bricked 2)possible idiot gutter w/ 56 2)worse Qx is almost forced to bet 3)one pair hands aren't necessarily calling a bet anyways [/ QUOTE ] 1 yes 2 no 3 no, we've already heard from worse Qx. Seriously, Qx doesn't call-call-call 4 yeah, but they do a lot and they always check behind
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