[50NL] KK vs the Rock of Gibraltar

[ciro bonano]

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed)

Hero ($48.00)
UTG ($52.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($12) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $24.5</font>, Hero...

Villain is 15/12/1.6 over a large sample of hands. I've never seen him do anything strange (except for folding too much).

Please, before you go "zomg overpair 3bet pot = the nuts" and mindless shove, give me a reasonable hand I'm beating here.

[rjacobs003]

AQo,AQs,KQs, KQo?

[ciro bonano]

[ QUOTE ]
AQo,AQs,KQs, KQo?

[/ QUOTE ]
Is he opening KQ? Is he calling a 3bet with AQ?

[Panic__NL]

You are raising an UTG nit out of the blinds, this is a sign of enormous strength. Villian has postion so he could be calling AQ here, KQ I highly doubt, cause it is a hand that is dominated by your 3betting range.
So you beat AQ here and I highly doubt he will reraise that here, cause he will fold out all worse hands and end up against all hands that beat him.
So either he is representing a better hand or he has 1, seen his reputation he probably has you beat here.

(I hope this isn't another hand you showed me on msn, where I had a complete different opinion than i have here, lol)

[okcomputer69]

This is a tough spot, with a board like that I would sense that he might just slow play his set by just calling your 8 dollar bet. He could easily be pushing top pair top kicker, AQs looking to take the pot down right here. But with his tight and cautious play, I would lean towards set and wait for a better spot against a player like him.

[XHitman014]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AQo,AQs,KQs, KQo?

[/ QUOTE ]
Is he opening KQ? Is he calling a 3bet with AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of villians would call a 3-bet with either, especially AQs. What OP does really comes down to whether he includes KQs in villian's range. If he does, it's a close push, if he excludes it, it's a fold. I doubt KQs/KQo is in range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.890% 40.89% 00.00% 10930 0.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 59.110% 59.11% 00.00% 15800 0.00 { AA, QQ, 9c9h, 9c9s, 9h9s, 5c5d, 5c5s, 5d5s, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh }

[ciro bonano]

[ QUOTE ]
If he does, it's a close push

[/ QUOTE ]If you assume he's calling the push and not doing some fancy "raising to see where he's at


[ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.890% 40.89% 00.00% 10930 0.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 59.110% 59.11% 00.00% 15800 0.00 { AA, QQ, 9c9h, 9c9s, 9h9s, 5c5d, 5c5s, 5d5s, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh }

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for stoving, I thought the situation was even a bit worse with this range. Btw, pokerstove automatically excludes board cards from ranges:
Hand 0: 40.890% 40.89% 00.00% 10930 0.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 59.110% 59.11% 00.00% 15800 0.00 { AA, QQ, 99, 55, AQs, AQo }

and you forgot the case KK (not making any difference)
Hand 0: 41.216% 39.43% 01.79% 10930 495.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 58.784% 57.00% 01.79% 15800 495.00 { QQ+, 99, 55, AQs, AQo }

[DaycareInferno]

vp of 15 probably just means that he doesn't try to steal in late position much.

[danny8]

please 3bet more! a nit raises utg, this will be by far your best opportunity to get money in while ahead.

as played i dunno, its prolly QQ/AA... but i dunno, at the time i prolly dont fold. theres plenty of nits that arent that abc. obv hes tight but is he the type that makes plays sometimes? if hes really straight forward and your confident hes never makin a move or overvalues something like AQ thn i guess a fold cant be too bad.

[crushednuts]

I think a nit pushes AA over your 3 bet almost always because he is afraid of a flop. He could easily have QQ or 99. I would put AQ in his range as many weak tighties make the mistake of calling 3 bets w/ this hand especially in position.

To Danny8: His 3-bet is way big enough. Raising any more than that IMO is terrible because you will rarely get any action unless he has aces. I think your raise is the perfect size for playing KK OOP.

Given his range I don't think your equity is high enough given that he essentially bet his entire stack w/ his raise (he is never getting away from anything here) to make a push +EV