Please give feedback on my bust-out hand

[ademjohn]

i'd push worse hands than that

[/ QUOTE ]

While i understand what you are saying it is the fact that he is UTG that makes me fold it. All players are short stacked here. They all have desperation to a degree. No one can play a hand without being willing to push since any commitment over blinds commits you. It is with this fact in mind that I say some one is about to bust soon and very soon. Op is gonna be all in within next 5-6 hands for sure. I would rather that if it is utg its better than 44. If its later position I ddont caRE if its with Q7 off. Op is not hurting here in comparisson to other stacks. M calculation is of diminished value here since he is not playing against a theory of poker as he would be earlier in the turney..but against these 3 opponents 2 of which are more desperate than he. I beleive in the ev calculation but not as gospel especially once you are at ft. This decision is made worse by the fact that bb is likely to call with any 2 here in the given scenario. He happened to hv 33 but the vast majority of the time he has 2 overs to 44.

[levAA]

ademjohn,

you are in that late position.

as we are at a 4-handed-table (UTG=cutoff).

as you just said yourself you wouldn't care if it's Q7o in late position (i would not push Q7o here but QJs) but that is exactly the point.

when the size of the table is reduced you have to adjust.

if BB calls with ATC we are very happy, cause we will be a 55:45 favorite, added the pot-odds due to the big blinds and antes this would be a huge possibility to double up.

while i still think you have some FE against the BB too.

[ademjohn]

LevAA,

I really do understand your point here and I see the merits of it. I still however must disagree. This game likely will not see any post flop play til HU. so late position effectively is the bb. It mat appear as if I am judging the decision based on his results but I assure you I am not. If He folds this hand how long is it likely to be before som1 busts...2-5 hands maybe. It may seem based on M that he is desperate enuff to push with any pr in any position but I suggest he is not as deperate as a simple M calc suggests. No one at this table is safe and shortly after he was out I imagine some1 else was as well. I think if the op is looking for a consencus here he should conclude that pushing was the right play here but I suggest there is a road less traveled here (lol-just being silly now)and I beleive dicretion to be the better part of valour utg 4 handed with 2nd biggest short stack. Good luck all!!!!

[4CardStraight]

Yes. Folding gives a significant higher percentage to take third. It also dramatically reduces our chances of winning first.

Our goal is to maximize our Expected monetary return, not to try to ensure one or two higher spots in the pay scale.

4Card

[JustCuz]

Yes, my goal was to maximize my potential -- I was playing for first. Believe me, I, like anyone would, felt a bit hesitant pushing and putting my tourney on the line; 3rd sure sounded better than 4th! Still, the only time I play for anything but first is in satellites/qualifiers where the top x-number of players get the same payout.

I guess the question still on the board is whether this play would make more money in the long run, or whether folding would be the best long-term strategy. I think that the math clearly shows that pushing this hand in 1000 identical situations would prove to be more successful the vast majority of the time, and the payout increases would multiply that benefit many times over.

Still, it's interesting that the pro on the rail said he would have folded preflop, as does one of our colleagues here at 2+2. Reminds me of Hellmuth's comment about "You represent the world...I represent Phil Hellmuth." heh...

Thanks again, all.

[hamnegger]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the payouts? You are definitely pushing if you play the hand. Those of you saying it's not close, have you ran some ICM calcs?

A lot of time we are picking up the 8k. Are those 8k chips worth more than the difference between 4th and 3rd place? The only likely FE you gain is against the big stack. The other two aren't playing any different against a 38k stack as opposed to 30k. When we are called, it's usually a flip or crushed.

No doubt it is +cEV and I'm not saying I disagree, but I'm not sure the equity gained by picking up the blinds outruns the pay jump. Or at least it's closer than some think.

Edit: I may be overestimating our ability to fold into 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]


why are we even thinking about folding into 3rd!read it the chip leader has 65k we are one double up from chip leader im thinking 1st not 4th.

[J.A.K.]

From TPFAP-

"Each tournament is different, so you will have to use your judgement to decide to what degree you would alter your strategy due to prize structure. But the basic idea is this: If you are in next to last place, but still quite short, you should tend to go out of your way to avoid going broke before the shorter stack does. "

I just felt it was worth considering once you hit the top spots where the jumps are significant. This situation is a little different from the specific scenarios Sklansky refers to but falls somewhere between playing too cautious simply to move up a spot and risking 3rd place money without enough reward. We are behind on odds against any calling range. So if you absolutely do not care for anything but 1st you may as well shove ATC or at least alot wider, no? $2500 is not an insignificant jump.

[hamnegger]

44 WINS 39.5%AGAINST TOP 10% OF HANDS. 38-30 odds . if we got called EVERY SINGLE TIME we' have to win 44% to break even. mmmmmmmmm. doesn't take a math genuis to figure out that this is an auto shove.24% of the time an opponent here will have a top 10% hand (i did the math simple combination problem) of those 24% we win 39.5% we win almost all the time here. someone can do the ev. this is also $ev bc we actually can bust someone when called. only 15% of the time you shove w 44 will you lose the other 85% you pick up 8k or 38 k .


so in summary:
10% you win 38k and are the chip leader and possibly move up to 3rd

75% you win 8k and go to 38k.

15% you bust but still win 2100.

these are rounded % but u get the point.