Put all-in with AQsu

[pernicus53]

A SNG on stars, $4 buy-in, 180 entrants, down to 29. I don't have a hand converter, but I'm not going to post the hand anyway, b/c it's pretty simple.

My stack is $5,096, blinds 200/400, 25 antes. UTG goes all in. His stack is 8500--he just got busted down from 20K, where he'd been owning the table. I had AQclubs and called him. He had a JJ and it held up.

Now, in the previous hand, he put in a $400 raise on QJsu. In retrospect, I think this tells me that an all-in raise (UTG, no less) has to signal a pocket pair, or possibly AA or AKsu, which means I definitely should not have called. It turns out I wasn't as big a dog as I probably should've thought I was.

Another factor is my low stack and my desire to get into the money. Was it good here for me to take a chance and build up a stack that I probably could've coasted to the money with? I don't think, 11 ppl off the money, with about 12 BB, it is yet time to try to just hold on and try to get ITM, but I'm not sure about the math or theories on that.
I hope to get a lot of good ideas kicked around, as is usual on these threads. Thanks,
jeff

[knightmare_37]

Sometimes when people take a big beat they'll tend to tilt and go aipf with a wider range than they usually would, and sometimes I'd call with AQs there (were you late position?) It's very situational though. The only thing you're really ahead of is AJ and usually thats not an aipf hand. If you felt like you had to take a stand somewhere to score some chips then a coinflip is fine by me usually.

[pernicus53]

I was only in 5th position--3 after me.

[Albert Moulton]

You are very slightly better than 1:1 vs {88+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+} (50.7% equity). I think his range at this point is just about that wide.

So, with all the blind and ante money in there already, and the fact that if you wait much longer you'll get blinded out, I think this is a +EV call.

[pernicus53]

Well, he did put someone else all-in (I can't recall how much of his chips this was, but a big bet) with A-10 su a little later, so that shows his range, even if this was AFTER I had my decision. He ended up winning the tournament, btw.

[fracas]

Very tempting because of the possible tilt on UTG's part, but I hold off here. If I'm going to risk my tourney with an M still over 5, I'd rather be the agressor, or have a high pair. It's a close decision, though, and if the blinds were due to go up before the next time I'm in them, I'd probably go for it.

[pernicus53]

Thanks to everyone who's contributed so far. Does anyone have ideas on what to do either at this stage or when you get about 5-8 people from the money and you're short-stacked but with enough to not have to push right now? There must be some sort of mathematical formula that can help here.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Very tempting because of the possible tilt on UTG's part, but I hold off here. If I'm going to risk my tourney with an M still over 5, I'd rather be the agressor, or have a high pair. It's a close decision, though, and if the blinds were due to go up before the next time I'm in them, I'd probably go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

OPs M here is about 6 (assuming a 10-handed table). So, while its not quite in the red zone, its pretty darn close.

And, I would definitely prefer to GO all-in as opposed to CALL all-in with AQs. So, while folding isn't bad, I think going for a double up + what's in the pot is worth the 1:1 hand equity. You have to win some coin flips to win a tournament, and this is probably a reasonably good spot to flip the coin.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to everyone who's contributed so far. Does anyone have ideas on what to do either at this stage or when you get about 5-8 people from the money and you're short-stacked but with enough to not have to push right now? There must be some sort of mathematical formula that can help here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is. It's "M" as referenced in one of the other replies in this thread. Get Harrington on Hold Em Vol 1&2 to understand how to apply "M" in a tournament.

Here, your M is 6 if it's a 10-handed table. That is your stack/(the blinds + antes). If M>20, you are in the green zone and can play a TAG game of poker (or whatever your style is). Strategy changes, however, as M descends into the yellow zone (10-20), the orange zone (5-10), and the red zone (<5). In the red zone, you want to be first to move all-in the pot (to maximize fold equity) with any pair and any A7 or bigger ace, or any two broadway cards.

Additionally, as M drops, you need to understand the "Calling Preflop All In Raises" section of NLHETAP so you aren't folding hands with which you should call given the pot odds and opponent's wider range of hands with which he'd push preflop. According to the tables in that book, if the preflop push was by a player who is "Average" (AA-77,Ak-AT, and KQ), then you are positive EV to call with AQs if you are getting at least 6:5 on your money. In this case, you are getting just slightly less than 6:5, but it is very close.

So, I suppose it would be a fold if you play by the book, but only just ever so slightly.

As I stated earlier, I'd probably call and flip the coin.

[pernicus53]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to everyone who's contributed so far. Does anyone have ideas on what to do either at this stage or when you get about 5-8 people from the money and you're short-stacked but with enough to not have to push right now? There must be some sort of mathematical formula that can help here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is. It's "M" as referenced in one of the other replies in this thread. Get Harrington on Hold Em Vol 1&2 to understand how to apply "M" in a tournament.

Here, your M is 6 if it's a 10-handed table. That is your stack/(the blinds + antes). If M>20, you are in the green zone and can play a TAG game of poker (or whatever your style is). Strategy changes, however, as M descends into the yellow zone (10-20), the orange zone (5-10), and the red zone (<5). In the red zone, you want to be first to move all-in the pot (to maximize fold equity) with any pair and any A7 or bigger ace, or any two broadway cards.

Additionally, as M drops, you need to understand the "Calling Preflop All In Raises" section of NLHETAP so you aren't folding hands with which you should call given the pot odds and opponent's wider range of hands with which he'd push preflop. According to the tables in that book, if the preflop push was by a player who is "Average" (AA-77,Ak-AT, and KQ), then you are positive EV to call with AQs if you are getting at least 6:5 on your money. In this case, you are getting just slightly less than 6:5, but it is very close.

So, I suppose it would be a fold if you play by the book, but only just ever so slightly.

As I stated earlier, I'd probably call and flip the coin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice, thanks.