i have to shove this river - right?

[djj6835]

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KJ and KT are far less likely in his range than KQ or AK. He'll fold KJ or KT often preflop and occassionally on the turn.


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I don't think him playing AK/KQ this passively up until the river is any more likely than him playin KJ or KT in this manner. In fact taking both the flop and turn play into account I would argue that KJ/KT are more likely than AK/KQ.

[HoldEmNewby]

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Its only $115 more for villain to call, i didn't think he was folding. What i meant is that when villain donks we're not very good against his range. We push we're getting a call 90% of the time but what is his range? I don't think we fair good enough against it to warrant a push.


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I think his range is something like KQ,KJ,KT,JT, and sometimes hands like AJ and AT. We beat all of those but one .

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Given his stats and position AK and AA has to be part of that range as well. You make a solid point and i have to concede that raise>fold.

[Nielsio]

I'm not raising here and I can barely find a call.

[sh58]

i don't think villain is folding to a push, but i don't know if a push is right. i'm not sure if he would bet a lone K because these type of very passive players are usually insanely scared of flushes. i think a flush, straight or boat are much more likely then a lone K.

i don't think there is alot between shoving and calling, so i would probably shove, gambool

[saskaman]

Stats or no stats doesn't a loose passive still c/r turn to protect the draw from hitting? Can't see folding here. Call and see him flip K,Q off. gg.

[futuredoc85]

OP- how many hands do you have on villain?

[capodu]

Passive palyers like that will bet on the river with their made hands, there is nothing you beat really besides Kx and there is a lot more that beat you. Just call the river and kick yourself that the poker gods [censored] you.

[Therdeford]

Dont Know the sample size here but 27/7 is not a reflection of a solid player.

We have to consider how a player with these stats plays the hand and not how a solid player would play.

Given the player type and how he plays his range we are ahead here more than behind when the k falls, Im pushing against this player.

[ug45cwb]

OK good discussion thanks guys.
I have 2,730 hands on this guy so his numbers should be converged pretty accurately. Also of note is his BB/100 is -19.35. If anything this probably makes it more likely we are behined?

[Montezuma21]

that's not nearly enough hands for BB/100 to converge FWIW.