200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[QTip]

I don't want to end any more discussion here, so I'll put the results of this hand in white below:

<font color="white"> EP checked, MP bet $24, I folded, UTG crai, and MP folded.</font>

[Jeff76]

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Morons who called 11BB with 77 are not folding on this flop because "they put you on AK."

[/ QUOTE ]Are you putting them squarely on pocket pairs then?

If we think their range consists of purely (or mostly) PPs that they will not fold, I think c/f is best. However, it seems to me that any player bad enough to make this call is bad enough to do it with an unpaired hand. Also, I think there are players who will call hoping to flop a set for $18 and then fold for $70 because it's a lot more money.

[Renton]

pretty trivial flop c/f.

preflop raise is perfect

[SABR42]

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Also, I think there are players who will call hoping to flop a set for $18 and then fold for $70 because it's a lot more money.

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The problem is that lots of those unpaired hands are either ahead of us, or have excellent equity against us.

By betting you are just praying they both have KQ or A8 or whatever.

I agree with Renton that this is a C/F.

[Octopus]

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The EV looks like this(I am going to keep it simple with 70 effective stacks, that guy has more and it will lower our EV but this will give the idea):

They both fold[ when they don't flop a set 75% of the time
(0.75)*(70) = 52.5
When at least one of them flops a set 25% of the time
(0.25)*(-70) = -17.5

Total EV: = 35

Since the flop doesn't matter you just calculate the chance that one of them will flop a set(you lose) or that they will fold(you win). You can take these numbers and take 20% of 75% and that will give you how often they have JJ/TT and don't flop a set and do more fun stuff from there.

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You are calculating the probability neither will have a set on any random flop. That probability is no longer relevant since we can see the flop cards. I am calculating the probability neither will have a set GIVEN the flop we actually got.

To be completely precise, I am assuming that they both have exactly JJ-22. The following things can happen.

1) There are 9*6 = 54 ways they can both have sets.
2) There are 9*42 = 378 ways the first player can have a set and second one not.
3) There are also 378 ways the second one can have a set and the first one not.
4) There are 12*7 = 84 ways they can both have a pair higher than 9s.
5) There are 12*30 = 360 ways the first can have JJ-TT and the other have an underpair to 9s.
6) There are also 360 ways that can happen the other way.
7) Finally, there are 30*25 = 750 ways they can both have an underpair to 9s.

That is a total of 2364 combinations. The probability of one or both of them having a set is 34.26%. The probability neither has a set is thus 65.74%. The probability of one or both of them having an overpair to the board is 34.01%. The probability that both have an underpair is a mere 31.72%.

So, pretending that they both have $70 left, and that they will call with a set or an overpair and fold otherwise, the expectation is:

.3426*(-70) (one or more has a set)
+ .3172*(70) (both have an underpair)
+ .0355*(.2432*280-70) (both have JJ-TT)
+ .3046*(.2465*210-70) (exactly one has JJ-TT)

for a total of -$7.40. The number I gave before was somewhat worse because I used the actual stack sizes rather than lowering them to $70.

In short, there are reasonable assumptions under which this is a fold.

[Renton]

wellllllllllllllllllllllllll

I actually thought there were more than 2 callers when i made my post.

with only 2, i can understand betting, but with the callers being utg and mp, im pretty sure checking is still the best play. They have hands like 88-JJ a lot here.

[Renton]

how ever, if you do bet, bet like 60 dollars and call a push.

No pussy betfolding.

[Javanewt]

Just got back to this thread. I did miss stack sizes and should not fold if my c-bet were raised, although I'd probably make the wrong play and fold to a push by UTG.

For those who recommend checking, do you ever c-bet if you whiff here? What kind of a whiffed board do you c-bet? Or, do you just let it go when you don't hit, especially against opps with those stack sizes?

Would love to know what MP was playing.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The EV looks like this(I am going to keep it simple with 70 effective stacks, that guy has more and it will lower our EV but this will give the idea):

They both fold[ when they don't flop a set 75% of the time
(0.75)*(70) = 52.5

When at least one of them flops a set 25% of the time
(0.25)*(-70) = -17.5

Total EV: = 35

Since the flop doesn't matter you just calculate the chance that one of them will flop a set(you lose) or that they will fold(you win). You can take these numbers and take 20% of 75% and that will give you how often they have JJ/TT and don't flop a set and do more fun stuff from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are calculating the probability neither will have a set on any random flop. That probability is no longer relevant since we can see the flop cards. I am calculating the probability neither will have a set GIVEN the flop we actually got.

To be completely precise, I am assuming that they both have exactly JJ-22. The following things can happen.

1) There are 9*6 = 54 ways they can both have sets.
2) There are 9*42 = 378 ways the first player can have a set and second one not.
3) There are also 378 ways the second one can have a set and the first one not.
4) There are 12*7 = 84 ways they can both have a pair higher than 9s.
5) There are 12*30 = 360 ways the first can have JJ-TT and the other have an underpair to 9s.
6) There are also 360 ways that can happen the other way.
7) Finally, there are 30*25 = 750 ways they can both have an underpair to 9s.

That is a total of 2364 combinations. The probability of one or both of them having a set is 34.26%. The probability neither has a set is thus 65.74%. The probability of one or both of them having an overpair to the board is 34.01%. The probability that both have an underpair is a mere 31.72%.

So, pretending that they both have $70 left, and that they will call with a set or an overpair and fold otherwise, the expectation is:

.3426*(-70) (one or more has a set)
+ .3172*(70) (both have an underpair)
+ .0355*(.2432*280-70) (both have JJ-TT)
+ .3046*(.2465*210-70) (exactly one has JJ-TT)

for a total of -$7.40. The number I gave before was somewhat worse because I used the actual stack sizes rather than lowering them to $70.

In short, there are reasonable assumptions under which this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally understand what you are saying, but if we are going on the assumption, which we pretty much should, that we are pushing any flop here then the flop doesn't matter at all. I keep saying this but you always leave that out when you respond to me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


However, I am still fairly sure that your numbers are off.

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1) There are 9*6 = 54 ways they can both have sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the 6 coming from?

On any given flop there are only 9 total combinations of possible sets. Since each opponent's total combination of hands from JJ-22 is 54(on this flop) and there are only 9 combos of those that have sets, the probability that player A has a set is (9/54) 17%. Player B has the same probability. The probability that both have a set is merely (0.17*0.17) 3%.

This is the step, as mentioned above, that you are leaving out. You have to subtract the probability that they both flopped a set out as you are counting it twice.

The probability of player A or player B flopping a set on this flop is:

0.16 + 0.16 - 0.03 = 0.29 = 29%

That is a 20% difference from your numbers and the correct ones. This changes things pretty quickly. You are also assuming that JJ and TT always call, which they won't. You also are assuming that they won't call incorrectly some.

This is a hard thing to calculate properly and most of these calculations are not that helpful as there are so many assumptions that have to be made. I think doing the calculations and thinking about the assumptions and how variables will affect the outcome is very helpful though. So, don't get me wrong.

I don't want to discredit you from the work and thought you have put in. I totally love this stuff. However, I think the fundamental logic you have is a hair off. When we get called by two players and the stack is that big to the pot sizes, if we have some fold equity or mistake equity, which we do, a push becomes profitable regardless of the flop. It really is just a semi-bluff. We will make them fold incorrectly a lot when we have A-high and sometimes they will call incorrectly with only 2 outs.

[Octopus]

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I totally understand what you are saying, but if we are going on the assumption, which we pretty much should, that we are pushing any flop here then the flop doesn't matter at all. I keep saying this but you always leave that out when you respond to me

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh. I know how you feel about saying something again and again and not getting your point across. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

First and most importantly. The point I am trying to make is that your plan of pushing any flop is a bad one. On this particular flop, if our opponents play as posited, pushing at this point is a mistake as I have shown. All of the rest of this is merely in support of that idea. If you want to argue that pushing *any* flop is correct, then you need to address this particular flop and these particular players.

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However, I am still fairly sure that your numbers are off.

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1) There are 9*6 = 54 ways they can both have sets.


[/ QUOTE ]


Where is the 6 coming from?

On any given flop there are only 9 total combinations of possible sets. Since each opponent's total combination of hands from JJ-22 is 54(on this flop) and there are only 9 combos of those that have sets, the probability that player A has a set is (9/54) 17%. Player B has the same probability. The probability that both have a set is merely (0.17*0.17) 3%.

This is the step, as mentioned above, that you are leaving out. You have to subtract the probability that they both flopped a set out as you are counting it twice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the line you point to is the one where I specifically include it. In the lines where I calculate the probability that only one has a set, I really do mean that only one has a set. (That is, I am excluding combinations where they both have a set.) Also, ironically enough, it is you who is over-counting. In your calculation, you are allowing them both to have the same set.

Here is where the 9x6 came from. Player one has a set. There are nine combinations of cards he can have which would give him a set: three each for each of the three cards on the flop. GIVEN THAT THE FIRST PLAYER HAS A SET, the second player has only 6 combinations of cards which make a set. (He can not have the same set as the first player, so there are only two flop cards remaining to give him a set.) Thus there are 9x6 possible combinations of hole cards which give them both sets.

(Also, there are actually only 51 total combinations of JJ-22 on this flop. There are 6 each for the 7 cards which do not appear on the flop and 3 each for the 3 cards which do appear.)