10/20nl tough river decision.

[leatherass]

Ok so maybe if I post my thoughts it will create more discussion. I origionally posted this hand on stoxpoker but therea re only like 6-7 good high limit players on that forum. So this is copy/pasted from stox to here. The post below is my follow up post on my first repsonse where I go into one more point. To all of the really good players out there, I would love to hear your thoughts on my logic. I am usually not much of a folder so this one really wieghed on me.

"What hand could he possibly play this way that I beat? If I were villan I could maybe justify calling the turn with a hand like ace 10. However, I don't think he can be too excited about making 2 pair given I nearly potted the turn. The only hands that a good player will do that with is a semi bluff with diamonds or a big hand like ak,kk or aa. I guess on occasion if a guy has a low wtsd I may just bet total air again and hope he folds a weak ace. But given that he perceives me as logical then how can he bet 2 pair on that river and think that it is a tremendous value bet? How often can he expect a solid player to call with a hand like aq which is the only hand he can think about getting value from? My guess is that if he did have ace ten then his plan must've been to go bet/fold. Right? Also the river was pretty scary even for ace ten.

Then you have to think about how many combinations of hands there are that he could play this way and how many I beat. I don't want to get to much into this but there are a bunch of hands that include two diamonds in them yet what is the liklihood he has ace ten given it would have to be the case ace and one of the three other tens? Not too many. Now also what are the odds he totally put a move on me? I would say probably a zero percent chance. So the more I think about it I think folding was definitely the play and I don't feel bad about it at all. I'm not saying it's an easy fold by wany means but I do think that folding was best. Anyone?



I forgot to comment on why he may have chose not to play a flush draw fast. The flop was ak9. So he knows that since I raised preflop that if he tries to c/r a flush draw he knows that one of two things are going to happen. A. he will take down a small pot when I fold. B. I am going no where with aq,ak,aa,kk,99, and I will reraise or pop him on the turn which will leave him in a very sick spot. I think on that particular board it's not a good idea to try and play draws fast as if I do have the hand I'm repping I'm going absolutely nowhere. If the board was draw heavy his fold equity on later streets especially goes way up as good players can find folds on drawy boards given they know they are slightly ahead or way behind. So that's why I think he didn't play a flush draw fast there."

[Trivial]

i'm sure 9d5d is in his range but folding here seems terrible

[Stinger88]

I think I call but can some of you explain how shoving is better than folding?

[RoastbeefUK]

I'm sorry I dont get all your logic but them I'm just back from a fantastic lunch with lots of champers and 40 year old wine.

I can't see how you can't call this.

[leatherass]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so maybe if I post my thoughts it will create more discussion. I origionally posted this hand on stoxpoker but therea re only like 6-7 good high limit players on that forum. So this is copy/pasted from stox to here. The post below is my follow up post on my first repsonse where I go into one more point. To all of the really good players out there, I would love to hear your thoughts on my logic. I am usually not much of a folder so this one really wieghed on me.

"What hand could he possibly play this way that I beat? If I were villan I could maybe justify calling the turn with a hand like ace 10. However, I don't think he can be too excited about making 2 pair given I nearly potted the turn. The only hands that a good player will do that with is a semi bluff with diamonds or a big hand like ak,kk or aa. I guess on occasion if a guy has a low wtsd I may just bet total air again and hope he folds a weak ace. But given that he perceives me as logical then how can he bet 2 pair on that river and think that it is a tremendous value bet? How often can he expect a solid player to call with a hand like aq which is the only hand he can think about getting value from? My guess is that if he did have ace ten then his plan must've been to go bet/fold. Right? Also the river was pretty scary even for ace ten.

Then you have to think about how many combinations of hands there are that he could play this way and how many I beat. I don't want to get to much into this but there are a bunch of hands that include two diamonds in them yet what is the liklihood he has ace ten given it would have to be the case ace and one of the three other tens? Not too many. Now also what are the odds he totally put a move on me? I would say probably a zero percent chance. So the more I think about it I think folding was definitely the play and I don't feel bad about it at all. I'm not saying it's an easy fold by wany means but I do think that folding was best. Anyone?



I forgot to comment on why he may have chose not to play a flush draw fast. The flop was ak9. So he knows that since I raised preflop that if he tries to c/r a flush draw he knows that one of two things are going to happen. A. he will take down a small pot when I fold. B. I am going no where with aq,ak,aa,kk,99, and I will reraise or pop him on the turn which will leave him in a very sick spot. I think on that particular board it's not a good idea to try and play draws fast as if I do have the hand I'm repping I'm going absolutely nowhere. If the board was draw heavy his fold equity on later streets especially goes way up as good players can find folds on drawy boards given they know they are slightly ahead or way behind. So that's why I think he didn't play a flush draw fast there."

[/ QUOTE ]

Stinger,

What do you think of this logic? Did you happen to read this? I'm just wondering how you would approach looking at making this river call and how it differs from my analysis? Thanks.

[DonButtons]

I call.

He could be turning a weaker hand into a bluff if a diamond peeled out.

[LB_001]

shoving is terrible here and id say more of a bluff than a value raise. In some other thread I remember he called a pot sized bet on a paired board on the turn w/ a flush draw so maybe he'd be willing to call the turn here hoping he'll get paid off on the river since he has a fairly loose image and I think definitely part of his range.

I don't really think he's value betting something like A10 or K10 like this, I'd expect a c/c or more of a half-2/3 pot blocker/value bet than a full pot bet. Especially since there's only one ace left I think it knocks out alot of his 2 pair hands he might try to value bet here. He has a set like 0% of the time. Only hand I can really see playing like this that you beat is a really weak ace that knows its beat (but called the turn anyway?) or a stubborn KQ/KJ. Not sure how often he'd turn a made hand into a bluff in a spot like this. I don't think calling is too terrible really since your hand is so strong but its tough to put him on a hand we beat. I think folding is probably better.

[75s]

[ QUOTE ]
I call.

He could be turning a weaker hand into a bluff if a diamond peeled out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don has(d) a Lambo. Listen to him! HOLLA!

[Victor]

"The flop was ak9. So he knows that since I raised preflop that if he tries to c/r a flush draw he knows that one of two things are going to happen. A. he will take down a small pot when I fold. B. I am going no where with aq,ak,aa,kk,99"

surely when you raise on button your range is massively wider than listed. wide enough that it seems to me his cr with a flush draw should show immediate profit right?

or is it more profitable to just call, bc now he doestn get moved off his draw and can win a big pot if youre strong; and if youre weak he can steal later?

i really dont belong in this forum but im really interested in why he would play a flush draw like this and this seems like a standard spot for any stakes.

[g-p]

samo definitely calls turn with naked diamonds. anyone remember when he called down grim with a 6 high flush draw on a paired board? everyone told him he played it back then he said 'well i got paid off so i must have played it good !!!' then him and zeejustin got in an argument