AQo from UTG facing a re-raise (4/180)

[SuperUberBob]

I've been playing pretty tight, rarely have gotten out of line and I've run pretty cold most of the tournament. Villain has also been playing fairly solid.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t1690)
UTG (t760)
Hero (t1880)
MP1 (t1930)
MP2 (t1035)
MP3 (t2835)
CO (t2105)
Button (t6750)
SB (t1640)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t900</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Hero ??

This is a shove/fold situation and I felt that AQo was a borderline hand against a tight, conservative player.

What concerned me most was that he didn't shove all-in over the top of me. He raised nearly half his stack as if he was inviting a call from me.

[billybeartku]

I fold. AQ utg raise is fine, but I hate facing 3bet. Think about this, you already raise 3bb from UTG which means you have a strong than normal holding and someone still 3bet you? He's gotta have your AQ crashed.

[registrar]

Yeah, you should probably fold (but if I'm raising 1/6 of my stack from ep with AQ in a 4/180, I'm never folding)

[CrispyBacon]

Gonna over-analyze this just to see if my new style of analysis and logic are correct...

You will be pot committed so you are choosing between a shove and a fold.

If you fold you will have 1580 left, 16 bbs, not terrible.

If you move all in and get called you will be putting 1580 more chips into the pot for a chance to win 2950. Rounding this to 1600 to win a pot of 3000, you are getting odds of about 1:1.9. Meaning that the call is correct only if you win the pot roughly 35% of the time or more.

He is a solid player and your image is solid as well, so his range is quite narrow. Let's say his range is AQ-AK and TT-AA.

vs AK you will have roughly 25% equity
vs AQ you will have roughly 50% equity.
vs AA you will have roughly 8% equity.
vs KK you will have roughly 28% equity.
vs QQ you will have roughly 30% equity
vs JJ and TT you will have roughly 43% equity

Against any other hands we will assign you 60% equity, lower pairs you will have less, weaker aces you will have a lot morr and for 2 live cards its about right.

AA QQ and AQ are less likely because you hold and ace and a queen. AK is more likely than the pocket pairs since there are more combinations of aces and kings than of pairs. Let's say we assign the following likelihoods...

AK- 25% (*Equity = 6.125%)
AQ- 5% (*Equity = 2.5%)
AA- 10% (*Equity = .8%)
KK- 15% (*Equity = 4.2%)
QQ- 10% (*Equity = 3%)
JJ- 15% (*Equity = 6.5%)
TT- 15% (*Equity = 6.5%)
Other hands- 5% (*Equity = 3%)

Total this up and your equity is 32.7 % making the correct play a fold.

Being new to the forum I would really appreciate a critique of my analysis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I tried to think like Harrington [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[flyingmoose]

I would fold and I really wouldn't think much of it.

[alewis21]

This is an easy fold.
1. He re-raised you one seat to your left with several players behind him yet to act. A solid player would do this with nothing short of a premium hand (top pocket pair or AK). What are the hands you are hoping he has? AJ on down, and that's not highly likely. Poket pairs JJ on down are coin flips, and you are in serious trouble with QQ on up and AK.

2. He doesn't have a desperate stack, so he is under no pressure to steal. Instead he raises enough that commits him to the pot if called, but doesn't raise all in. That sort of play is begging for a call.

3. If you call, you will be out of position and at a severe disadvantage.

Fold.

[Butcho22]

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I would fold preflop and I really wouldn't think much of it.

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[SuperUberBob]

I was semi-tilted at the time due to a lack of cards and an overall lack of action when I did have a hand. AQ was the best hand I had seen all tournament.

I did fold the hand and concluded that I had to let it go, hoping that a better hand comes along.

It did not though. I stayed short stacked for about 20-30 more minutes, jammed with 33 from BB after SB completed. SB calls with K2o. Two pair on board. gg me.

[sledghammer]

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I would fold preflop and I really wouldn't think much of it.

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Seriously?

[SuperUberBob]

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I would fold preflop and I really wouldn't think much of it.

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Didn't even notice this.

I would definitely not. There was not a lot of preflop raising at my table. No way I muck this preflop.