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#4
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[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I guess I'm just looking at it differently. How about this scenario: There is a party in Las Vegas that will pay 1 in 10 people $1000. Cost to go is $90. You figure this is +EV so you decide to go. When you get there, you realize you forgot your ticket. For $50 they can re-issue your ticket (you can not get your $90 back). Should you pay the $50 or just leave? [/ QUOTE ] The $90 is a complete loss. Since you cannot get it back, no matter what happened, it's no longer relevant. So now we have a new situation where we're being offered 20-1 odds on something that's a 9-1 shot. Easy call. |
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