Holdem: Reading the set when someone has pocket

[jtd00123]

Hello, when my opponent has pocket pair before the flop and has hit a set with that pair, I typically have problems reading that. I typically get busted when I have a great hand like two top pair with the community cards showing no straight or flush possibilities. What strategies do you use to read a possible set on your opponent? Before you say just read your opponent, remember that I see many pros on TV get busted when they have two pair against a pocket set, because it is hard to place your oppoent on a set by looking at the community cards, which is what makes it so deadly. Possible straight and flush possibilites are easier to read despite the fact that they are stronger hands, so they don't seem as deadly to me. Maybe some players like Prahlad Friedman might be able to see it with some luck. So I ask, what do you use to detect this crazy hand that is so hard to read?

[gedanken]

well, sets are beautiful for exactly this reason. I love em. Learn to play them well yourself, so you're stacking someone else as often as they're stacking you.


Sets do really well against aggro opponents who bet and raise decent hands like tptk and 2pr. It would be hard to recommend betting/raising less with these hands, but be aware of opportunities to do so, particularly on dry boards. If a tight opponent is calling or raising big bets from you on a discoordinated board, sometimes you can check. Only do this when your opponent doesn't have obvious draws!

somewhere around here is an excellent post on pot control, and another specifically on defending against setminers (both are probably in the micro-stakes NL forum). I thought I had them bookmarked, but I can't find them quickly. Search, and ye might find...

[tarheeljks]

post a hand

[ChrisV]

If you have top two on a non coordinated board you're going broke no matter what unless you're really deep.

One thing you can do is watch for tight players who limp/call or cold call raises and then go berserk postflop.

[PantsOnFire]

I watch for betting patterns as follows:

1) A calling station raises. This is not a good sign.

2) This why a pf raise is so important. You have control of the hand. Say you have position. On the flop villain checks, you bet, he calls. On the turn (no straight or flush or paired board), villain checks, you bet villain raises. RED FLAG. Alternatively, on the turn villain now leads out. You have to determine if villain is aggressive and betting a draw or value betting a set. This is not a good time to raise. Calling depends on your gut, your hand and how deep you are.

3) PF raise again, out of position. You hit TPTK and value bet, villain calls. Turn brick, you bet, villain calls. RED FLAG. If villain is not a calling station, you are in trouble.

In the above situations, we are the pf raiser so we have control of the hand. If we meet the resistance I have described we are either having a move put on us (perhaps we are viewed as weak tight) or villain is strong enough to play with the pf raiser.

In a limped pot, it is much more difficult to decide what villain is up to since any decent hand will be sticking around, draws and TP included so it's harder to read the situation.

Another good general rule is to compare the way villain usually plays a hand to the way his is now playing. A good example is an aggro player who is always betting and raising. This kind of guy usually likes to slowplay his big hands so if he is checking in spots where he normally bets or calling when he normally raises, this is a warning sign.

The texture of the flop is also an indicator. If it is a very wet board, the possibilities of a drawing hand are higher. If the board is dry, then strength usually represents a two pair or set kind of hand.

Also on a wet board, a guy with a set is going to be more aggressive. So again, if villain checks and calls with his draws, then bets and raises on a wet board could indicate he really likes his hand now and want everyone to either go away or pay heavily for their draws.

I am much better at NL tourneys than cash so early on, I can get away from a lot of hands when deep. I probably fold some winning hands now and then but I also avoid getting stacked early. For example, I have TPTK on a non drawing board. Most guys are not going the distance with less than that so I throw it away often if met with very strong rsistance. Sure, sometimes a maniac will move all-in with TPGK, but if that happens less than half the time vs, a guy with a set or two pair, then I'm doing all right.

The last thing I can think of is watch for a small lead bet. Sometimes villain will do this as a probe with a mediochre hand and some other villains will do this with a monster.

In the end, I watch for a change in villain. Most villains play fairly straightforward with an occasional bluff. And also most villains like slowplaying big hands. Just develop observational habits and allow your instinct to set off alarm bells when villain is displaying unusual betting.