Bodog NFL Player Props

[BudLewis]

Scanning over these, the best bet I saw on the board was Warrick Dunn under 1300 rushing yards (-120). Dunn has only broken 1140 yards once in his career, in 2005 with 1416. He's 32 and recovering from back surgery, and it's not even clear that he's much more than a third down back in the Falcons' offense with the rise of Jerious Norwood. It at least looks like a time-share situation. Pro Football Prospectus only projects Dunn for 823 yards.

Anyone disagree or see anything else that looks strong?

-BL

[cefis21]

Tough one on Dunn. With Vick gone most of the rushing game will be on Dunn's shoulders. PFP projections likely involve Vick as QB. It's a close one. Though 1300 seems a little high.

Here are my 7 plays.

Gore attps. over 322
Gore Rushing yards over 1580
Cotchery Rec TD over 6
Brown (Mia) Rush TD's over 7
Morency Rush TD's over 4
Morency rush yards over 700
Kitna Passing TD's over 21 1/2

49er's have such an easy schedule(little tough at first) Gore should have a banner year.

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are my 7 plays.

Gore attps. over 322
Gore Rushing yards over 1580
Cotchery Rec TD over 6
Brown (Mia) Rush TD's over 7
Morency Rush TD's over 4
Morency rush yards over 700
Kitna Passing TD's over 21 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[rjp]

I don't have PFP with me at the moment, but 322 is absurdly high. How many carries did they project him having?

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have PFP with me at the moment, but 322 is absurdly high. How many carries did they project him having?

[/ QUOTE ]

Gore over looks high to me, not even counting the 2 ACL surgeries and 2 shoulder surgeries + broken hand. If they are out of race, he will be shut down last few weeks possibly to heal, etc.

[dudeimstoked]

dunn line moved to 1235 -120

[03 Z4]

Sapp under 8.5 sacks - Last yr was 1st time in 6 yrs he went over 7.5 (10). Oak just traded for Warren from Den so that will take PT from him.

Toomer under 705 yds - He's on downside of his career plus coming off ACL surgery.

A. Houston +1150 yds - He ave that # (16G) w/ Carr and Schaub is big upgrade.

[bevo_stevo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here are my 7 plays.

Gore attps. over 322
Gore Rushing yards over 1580
Cotchery Rec TD over 6
Brown (Mia) Rush TD's over 7
Morency Rush TD's over 4
Morency rush yards over 700
Kitna Passing TD's over 21 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty much the same face that I made after reading those picks.

Does anyone know where to find a listing of historical NFL player injuries? I guess by looking at the box scores from week-to-week you could formulate a decent estimate for the likelihood of a player injury - but an actual list would be nice.

[cefis21]

As expected my picks drew a little flack. But Gore easily has a chance to hit 2000 yards this year.
Let's see all you nay sayers picks.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
As expected my picks drew a little flack. But Gore easily has a chance to hit 2000 yards this year.
Let's see all you nay sayers picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

partial list of Miami tailbacks over the years:
OJ Anderson
Melvin Bratton [top 5 pick]
Alonzo Highsmith [ditto]
Steve McGuire
Willie Williams
Cleveland Gary
James Jackson
Clinton Portis
Edge James
Frank Gore
Willis McGahee

Frank Gore has been my fave ever since his freshman year behind Portis. I will take him in every fantasy league I can outside top 2 picks.

He won't get anywhere near 1800 yards. And has a very long injury history. I took the Under and I love the guy.