NL50 JJ

[Panic__NL]

Villian is 90/10/1.7 over only 10 hands.

Do I have enough equity to call his river shove?

Pot on river is 71 I have to call 26, giving me 2.7:1 So I need about 30% equity, which isn't much, but is has to come from him bluffing the scarecard most of the time.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $11.65
UTG+1: $42.95
CO: $48.20
Button: $83.60
SB: $9.50
Hero: $50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($7.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5.75</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($19.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12.75</font>, CO calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($44.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO is all-in $26.45</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $26.45 returned to CO.

Results:
Final pot: $44.75

[Vedocorban]

If villain is bluffing, he's bluffing with one pair with JT or something, and you'd think he'd check most of those hands down. Expect to see two pair, a straight or a flush &gt;70% of the time here. Fold.

[DerrtySlime]

are you bet/calling the turn?( calling all in)

overall i think u could pump it up more on the bet sizes on flop and turn. for flop: 6.50 turn: more if your going to bet it. the turn is where it can get very interesting.

[Panic__NL]

3/4 pot not enough on flop? he is not getting the odds to draw anyway.

[AZplaya]

I think this is fine, though I think going for a c/r ai on the turn would be fun.

[Panic__NL]

he probably checks behind with his drawing hands on the turn.

[danny8]

i think i fold. thats such a bad card and gave him the best hand a lot of the time (flush got there, AT got ther etc)

i would prolly bet flop/turn a little harder. you are betting enough to deny him odds, but against this guy (only a 10hand sample so we cant put too much weight in it), but i still think he calls flop/turn ~psb's with a lot that you beat.

[Vedocorban]

[ QUOTE ]
3/4 pot not enough on flop? he is not getting the odds to draw anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're betting for value, there's no so much amount that's "enough" unless the villain will make a correct fold. Here, you've forced villain to take the worst of it with a FD or pair+gutshot, but often villain will take even WORSE odds because they overestimate their implied odds or just don't care. A full pot sized bet is probably the "sweet spot" where you get maximum value.

If you have a car worth $5,000 and you know a guy is willing to pay $10,000 for it, you're costing yourself money if you think $7,500 is "enough."

[Rednas]

I bet more on the turn ($16), he is obviously drawing and I want him to fold.

[monkeymaps]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet more on the turn ($16), he is obviously drawing and I want him to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is bad for so many reasons