$3.40 - Straight, Facing Tough Spot - Mid Game

[crfergu]

No reads on Villian.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1345)
UTG+1 (t885)
MP1 (t1544)
MP2 (t3631)
MP3 (t2090)
CO (t1265)
Button (t1055)
SB (t1750)
Hero (t1435)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, CO calls t50, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, Hero checks

Flop: (t125) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (t125) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t200</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to t500</font>, HERO????



Did he limp w/ AQ? Wouldn't he push with the flush draw instead of just raising?

[mnlgrind]

put it all in here. NH.

[taipan168]

All in for me too, you have the second nuts! If he has AQ then I pay him.

[ymu]

I'm agreeing with the push advice - especially at this buy-in, but it is worth at least thinking about.

If we assume he's not insane, and he doesn't think we're an idiot, he has to have at least a K high straight here, so the best we can do is split and he may be freerolling with the flush draw. If you had a read that he was decent post-flop it would be worth playing around with his limping ranges - getting it AI for a split at best isn't a great idea, unless a split is so overwhelmingly likely that it doesn't matter with the chips in the pot.

It comes down to how many Qs which aren't AQ he would limp; how likely he is to have limped instead of raised with AQ; how many of these Qx hands are suited in clubs; how likely it is he limped a largish PP and is now panicking because his set/overpair might be in trouble; how likely it is that he would raise with a draw/worse made hand on this board.

I don't think it's that trivial without reads - not with 4 to the lower straight on board.

[taipan168]

nh ymu, you always give solid and very well thought through advice.

That said, playing for a split isn't such a bad thing here considering the chips already in the pot, is it? Agree that if opp has a Q plus FD that's a bad outcome, but weighed against that we need to consider those times where we're ahead of opp with either a bare FD or pair plus FD.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
nh ymu, you always give solid and very well thought through advice.

That said, playing for a split isn't such a bad thing here considering the chips already in the pot, is it? Agree that if opp has a Q plus FD that's a bad outcome, but weighed against that we need to consider those times where we're ahead of opp with either a bare FD or pair plus FD.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I'm not suggesting a fold against an average opponent at this buy-in for all the reasons you suggest. I haven't done any numbers, but against a good opponent it might be worth running it - there isn't that much in the pot yet, especially if we're only calling to win half of it but potentially losing our stack. It's terribly one-sided against a good opponent.

I just can't see a decent opponent doing this with any hand other than a straight - sets and big draws are getting fine odds to call with the knowledge that they will likely stack a straight if they hit. At the lower buy-ins it's far more likely to be a K high straight than an A high, and a lot more draws thinking that raising the turn is a good idea.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nh ymu, you always give solid and very well thought through advice.

That said, playing for a split isn't such a bad thing here considering the chips already in the pot, is it? Agree that if opp has a Q plus FD that's a bad outcome, but weighed against that we need to consider those times where we're ahead of opp with either a bare FD or pair plus FD.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I'm not suggesting a fold against an average opponent at this buy-in for all the reasons you suggest. I haven't done any numbers, but against a good opponent it might be worth running it - there isn't that much in the pot yet, especially if we're only calling to win half of it but potentially losing our stack. It's terribly one-sided against a good opponent.

I just can't see a decent opponent doing this with any hand other than a straight - sets and big draws are getting fine odds to call with the knowledge that they will likely stack a straight if they hit. At the lower buy-ins it's far more likely to be a K high straight than an A high, and a lot more draws thinking that raising the turn is a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]


and foruntately there are still people out there doing this with sets and 2 pair hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

you need to stack off here without a decent read at least.

[stickfighter]

[ QUOTE ]
and foruntately there are still people out there doing this with sets and 2 pair hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

you need to stack off here without a decent read at least.

[/ QUOTE ]


I was thinking the same thing. I play this level, and in my experience, this is a set/two pair/TPGK more often than not.

[ymu]

Yes yes yes - I really am saying to push here - I just wanted to say that it's not a trivial hand, and reads will matter a LOT.

What if the OP said $55 and villain is a respected 2+2er?