stars 2nd chance, 2 hands vs jimquig

[Ansky]

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in hand one dont u only have to be ahead like only 20% to break even or better?

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u need like 36% vs his range.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in hand one dont u only have to be ahead like only 20% to break even or better?

[/ QUOTE ]

u need like 36% vs his range.

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U need 5745 / ( 5745 * 2 + 5305) = 35%.

U r 29% against an underpair (stronger with the backdoor flush draw). Villain would push AA/KK preflop and probably checks a set. I think this is a call.

But this is why the reraise size is so bad. You know you miss the flop 2/3 of the time, so why put yourself in this position. Reraise enough to commit yourself, make a real small reraise, push, or flat call preflop. This reraise just puts you in a bad situation.


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2988606
pokenum -h as kd - qh qc -- 8d 3d 5s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 8d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 288 29.09 702 70.91 0 0.00 0.291
Qc Qh 702 70.91 288 29.09 0 0.00 0.709

[Bakes]

29% is not 35%, and i'd argue that he never has unpaired cards here.