|
|
#21
08-21-2007, 01:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Lead or Check/Raise
I think one of the concepts that the poster may be missing is the difference between ev and implied odds.
Ev has no memory. Its basically a reasonable guess based on available information that if you get any one of a set number of cards on the turn and/or river that you will have a winning hand. Sometimes that EV is pretty easy to calculate when you have a draw for the nuts others like hitting an inside straight which also completes a possible straight flush or flush may or may not win the hand. In those situations we lower the odds of hitting our selected card but it doesn't negate the fact that if a losing card comes which does complete your hand you will still have to bet it. All that being said EV therefore is a situational calculation based on your knowledge of what can happen card wise in the upcoming streets. Once you make the calculation you can't modify it because you made bets previously which were more favourable to you than now. You can't borrow equity from a good bet and use it on a bad bet to make it less bad. If its a bad bet its going to stay a bad bet. You can justify making a bad bet by using Implied odds for future betting of the other players you are up against if our desired card turns up at the next street. Implied odds therefore are a justification to make a bad bet in the hopes that doing so will make much more equity that that one bet isolated has. Implied odds is a gamble on future value. Two different skill sets are required to calculate your ev and then your implied odds. If your estimation of implied odds can generate value greater than the negative ev you have for your current bet, then it is at that time that making a negative ev bet is justified. Its still negative ev however. So if implied odds + EV is greater than your current pots odds its safe to make the bet. Its not positive ev results from the past + EV for current hand is greater than your current pot odds its safe to make the bet. Past performance by you is totally irrelevant. 
|
|
#22
08-21-2007, 01:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Lead or Check/Raise
No, I'm saying that I call JT in the BB here because compared to reasonable ranges (that among others include AT and the monsters) it's +EV to call. Flop decisions come later, I'm still PF here [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
|
|
#23
08-21-2007, 02:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Lead or Check/Raise
Ok guys point taken..... thx
|
|
#24
08-21-2007, 03:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Lead or Check/Raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] flop: you're getting 7.5:1 with a GSSD - fold [/ QUOTE ] this could be a mistake of mine. we need a 8 to complete GSSD. That is 4 outs. 46 unseen cards. that is more than 10 to 1 underdog. Where am I wrong? plz correct [/ QUOTE ] There are 47 unseen cards on the flop. So you are 10.75:1. You are right that it is more than 10:1, almost 11:1. On the turn you are 10.5:1.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
