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#21
08-20-2007, 05:16 PM
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Re: calling two cold with nut flush draw on paired board
[ QUOTE ]
Please please please please raise preflop. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Clark Assuming that he has a couple of limpers in front of him (it's unclear from the post), what's the smallest suited ace you'll raise (given typical opponents for this game, of course)? -McGee 
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#22
08-20-2007, 06:53 PM
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Re: calling two cold with nut flush draw on paired board
When the board pairs on the turn in a loose/passive game and there is aggression from two players in front of you, I think it is safe to say that the only way to win is to hit the flush on the river. The possibility that we are drawing dead, and/or will have to put in more bets on the turn, is significant enough to cut our outs by more than just one or two. There is also the possibility that we will have to put another bet in on the river with a second best hand.
If everything were to go our way, we don't get 3 or 4 bet and we hit our flush and win two bets on the river, we have 5:1 in implied odds at the time of our turn CC. We would have to give ourselves: per Xhad's good point, 45/(5+1)= 7.5 clean outs to make this call correct. We only have 7 outs to the flush if one of these players has trips. Also, we will not always win two bets on the river when our flush is good.
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#23
08-21-2007, 12:26 AM
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Re: calling two cold with nut flush draw on paired board
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Also, we will not always win two bets on the river when our flush is good. [/ QUOTE ] If we don't win 2 bets it's because they have hands worse than trips. EDIT: I'm on my way to bed but remind me to look at the rest of your math a little more closely later.
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#24
08-21-2007, 11:18 AM
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Re: calling two cold with nut flush draw on paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also, we will not always win two bets on the river when our flush is good. [/ QUOTE ] If we don't win 2 bets it's because they have hands worse than trips. EDIT: I'm on my way to bed but remind me to look at the rest of your math a little more closely later. [/ QUOTE ] They both do not necessarily have trips. It's quite possible that the original turn bettor has a queen and will not be making or calling any river bets when the 3rd trump hits. I think that you will find that the math works out. Hope you slept better than I did. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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