Boat vs nit - fold? - Page 7

HedonismBot · #61 08-21-2007, 06:13 AM

He could have AA or KK making a desperate bluff to move you off trips. It wouldn't be a good play but it seems like a lot of people forget that your opponents sometimes don't play optimally, and sometimes, gasp, make humongous errors. He could have 88!!. I'm not saying this is a call, but it easily could be swung from a fold to a call depending on flow, reads, and all that junk

RoastbeefUK · #62 08-21-2007, 07:36 AM

My first post, been lurking for a while and should really contribute (I'm a high stakes on-line / live mainly cash / big tounry player).

Been thinking about this for an hour and I'm not sure, given the stack sizes, you can put this down. However I dont see AQhh / AQo / 66 beeing possibile holdings at all.

On the surface (and after having given this a lot of thought) this screams QQ. I think we can safely say he has a PP (most likely QQ), however I think there is also a 20-30% possibility he has 77-AA and is making a play.

The river play makes no sense for QQ (unless hes a very good player and knows your game and your into mind games or he's a weak player) therefore I think you have to call.

What happened?

MDMA · #63 08-21-2007, 07:39 AM

So it's impossible for him to have 66, but QQ is very likely...yah, that makes sense.

RoastbeefUK · #64 08-21-2007, 07:43 AM

Yes in my view 66, AQs/o totally out of the question for any half decent player.

MDMA · #65 08-21-2007, 08:09 AM

Alright, now try to explain why QQ makes sense but not 66.

RoastbeefUK · #66 08-21-2007, 08:15 AM

Are you being serious? Why don't you get it? What makes you think he could have 66?

TheWorstPlayer · #67 08-21-2007, 08:53 AM

well turn and river are exactly the same whether he has QQ or 66, since it's the same hand there. so you must be claiming that he would never play 66 the way he played the flop. but I dont see why not...

RoastbeefUK · #68 08-21-2007, 09:12 AM

Hi,

Exactly, who over bets the pot (flop) with a boat on that board? Screams of an overpair bet.

Would he flat call (raise) the 66 on the flop? Possibly but then you are open to an overpair hitting?

Perhaps the turn Q could make him slow down and he's pushing air on the river? Doesn't add up.

He turned Q's full.

Much more likely he called the flop with an overpair (probably QQ), but th shove seems bad to me (but there could be 20 reasons why he would do this that we are not aware of)