KQs - Huge Pot - ? on All Streets - Page 3

detruncate · #21 08-20-2007, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

River the probability your hand is good is similar to the probability that elvis and 2pac are still alive but have transformed into transexuals and are hiding in a remote african jungle, making cocoa for a living.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's South America, not Africa + coca, not cocoa. And shhhh.

secretprankster · #22 08-20-2007, 04:04 PM

Though I have never played with this TARCARDS fellow, calling the river here has to be as close to a 1BB mistake as you're going to see. Pots don't often get to be 30BB in 6max but I wouldn't be shocked if KQ was in fourth place here.

Zach6668 · #23 08-20-2007, 10:36 PM

Calling this river, at worst, is a minor, minor mistake. It's 29-1.

milesdyson · #24 08-20-2007, 10:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling this river, at worst, is a minor, minor mistake. It's 29-1.

[/ QUOTE ]
so? you're good 0%. there's a big difference between being good 2 or 3% and being good 0%. it's hard to make one bet errors, and this is one. calling a one bet error minor is lalala, that's like 100 hands worth of play.

Zach6668 · #25 08-20-2007, 10:47 PM

You can't imagine being ahead here 1/100 times? 1/50 times? 1/30 times?

TheHip41 · #26 08-20-2007, 10:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can't imagine being ahead here 1/100 times? 1/50 times? 1/30 times?

[/ QUOTE ]

zach, you are never good here.

Not 1-30, not 1-100, this is a 1BB mistake everytime.

milesdyson · #27 08-20-2007, 10:54 PM

i think we're ahead of TARCARDS 1 out of ~30 times (probably less actually) after he check/3-bets the world on the flop and then check/raises the turn on a total blank.

i know we have no reads on CO, but he capped the flop vs. TARCARDS' massive show of strength and then he reraised the turn with 3 others committed after TARCARDS jacked it up again. let's conservatively say we're ahead of CO like 1 in 10.

then there's UTG, who clearly has JJ or AQ (maybe KJ) like a million percent of the time. i think we're ahead of him when he bets the river maybe 1 in 20.

(1 / 30) * (1 / 10) * (1 / 20) = 0.000167

(0.000167 * 30) - (0.999833 * 1) = -0.994823 BB

-0.99 is pretty close to -1.

Zach6668 · #28 08-20-2007, 11:45 PM

k cool.

I think I'm just misapplying a concept meant for HU pots.