[NL 100] Difficult spot with A,4s FD+Gutshot on the flop

[Ed_Warren]

UTG (34/11/3/~150)
CO (8/2/3/~500)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($99.25)
Button ($60.55)
Hero ($98.90)
BB ($100)
UTG ($50.30)
MP1 ($53.75)
MP2 ($77.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $8</font>, Hero ?

How should I play this ?

[FireStorm]

Pop it to $28 so that you will have the opportunity to get it all in if UTG shoves and CO flat calls.

[dividius]

I call and see the turn. You have too much equity to fold. 5 is a great card obviously. Spade is good, but it might scare everyone off. And your A could even be live, if no one has AQ, 22, or 33. You could even make an argument for a raise, but with stacks this deep I just call with the intent of getting it all in if we hit. If we miss on turn, check and hope we get a freebie, then reevaluate our odds if someone bets.

[FireStorm]

Not sure why you think the stacks are too deep for getting money in. Hero and CO have slightly less than a full buy in. UTG has a half stack.

If you flat call here and the pot goes to the turn three way with no further raising, it's clear as daylight that someone is on a flush draw. You will not get a dime out of big Queens, KK/JJ, or even sets, if the turn is the 7s etc. You should be thrilled to play for UTG's stack here if he has KQ/KK. He may actually have AQ/AA, which kill your Ace, but I'd still jam this flop. This will also make it easier to stack lower flushes with no sweat.

[FireStorm]

I'm actually going to change my analysis a bit pending more information on previous history with CO. I just noticed you have him running at 8 VPIP over 500 hands, which means his range is pretty low here, and comprised A LOT of 33/22. What other instances have you seen him minraise flops?

[Ed_Warren]

I'm more concerned about the CO.
He is nitty, he called a PFR and he minraised the flop, in my opinion this is cleary a set line/2Pair line.

EDIT :
He minraises nearly everytime with a strong hand. ( At least TPTK etc.)

[AlexB182]

I c/r such a monster draw on the flop. If you got reraised, so be it.

For some reason, I can't copy and paste the pokerstove results, but we are only a slight dog to AxQx and AA(45 55), a fav vs KxKx (55 45) and only a big dog against a set of 2s or 3s. When all the money goes in there on flop, I think you got the right odds to take a risk here.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm more concerned about the CO.
He is nitty, he called a PFR and he minraised the flop, in my opinion this is cleary a set line/2Pair line.

EDIT :
He minraises nearly everytime with a strong hand. ( At least TPTK etc.)

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but he never has 2pr on this board

[Ed_Warren]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm more concerned about the CO.
He is nitty, he called a PFR and he minraised the flop, in my opinion this is cleary a set line/2Pair line.

EDIT :
He minraises nearly everytime with a strong hand. ( At least TPTK etc.)

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but he never has 2pr on this board

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and he wouldn't raise with a FD, so he has to have a set here.

[jetsetboy]

I'm pushing this oop.