Chances of outflopping Aces

[Ribbo]

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I think it's a fairly clear that you should not call the pre-flop bet, despite having 40% equity, because you know you're going to be putting the rest of your stack in with only 40% equity on later streets.

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well I think the main point is that 10-20% of the time or whatever you're gonna stack off on the flop with 80-100% equity.

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But your not factoring in the times you stack off on the flop with 10% equity as well.

[Poker monkey]

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I think it's a fairly clear that you should not call the pre-flop bet, despite having 40% equity, because you know you're going to be putting the rest of your stack in with only 40% equity on later streets.

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well I think the main point is that 10-20% of the time or whatever you're gonna stack off on the flop with 80-100% equity.

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This is a valid observation, but my point was in general it's not good to make a call which is going to put you in a spot where a large % of the time you're making a bigger, albeit +EV call with <%50 equity. The situation is -EV overall.

In reality you will indeed be well ahead some of the time which complicates the situation, and requires a few calculations based on your expected flop equity.

Aisthesis - this looks good. I'll have to spend some more time looking at these calculations and I'll post my thoughts later.

[PLOlover]

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But your not factoring in the times you stack off on the flop with 10% equity as well.

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oh i know, I mean I'm not calculating anything here, I'm just saying that you need to calculate the different flops and what will happen, my point is that it's not like you're gonna flop 40% equity every time.

[Poker monkey]

Aisthesis - I've gone through the sums and they look good - thanks for doing that.

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The open card problem, though, is definitely going to make a big difference: I'd say you'll probably have to call here with something like fd + pair for this to work, and when your fd is no good, you're in fairly bad shape. I don't think fd + gutshot is going to be enough for the call, since the fd is no good nearly 50% of the time.

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Not sure what you mean by the "open card problem" - do you mean the problem of estimating your equity from your number of outs, because you don't know how many outs you have? In theory you'll sufficient equity to call with a wide range of flops - for example with 9876 on a rainbow K82 board you have 38%. But knowing your equity is definitely a problem in practice. There is plenty of opportunity for the caller to make mistakes and call with <33% equity and fold with more than 33%, which is a good argument for not calling in what you've shown to be a theoretically marginally +EV situation with KKQJ.

Interestingly, the "any 4 cards" vs AAxx graph looks pretty similar to the KKQJ graph (>50% equity 25% of the time; >33% equity 45% of the time), without the hump up to 12% (which presumably represents flops where you hit a King). So it may be profitable (marginally) to call the pre-flop re-raise with any four, if your opponent has a bit more than a PSB left. With more money behind, you also have to narrow your flop shoving range to something above 33% equity.

Next step, using a similar method to before, can we calculate how much more than a PSB has to be behind, assuming you can know your equity on the flop accurately, to call pre-flop with any four cards? And how much equity do you need to get it in on the flop?

[iggymcfly]

Do people actually fold 6789 to a reraise? Really? Occasionally there are spots where you're not closing the action and you think there might be a 4-bet or something, but in general, you shouldn't fold any hands to a single reraise that are worth raising with unless they have an ace or a pair. Even then, you can be OK if you're deep.

[shpongled]

This is interesting. I just made an Excel spreadsheet that pretty much answers this question for any hand. What we're doing here is pretty much integration. Summing the equity times the probability of having that equity. I found that dividing the graph into 20 groups produced accurate results (indicated KK** has 30.2% equity against AA**, close to the actual value of 30.1%). So what you have to do is just enter the average equity for each range (percentage of flops 0-5%, 5-10%, etc).

I'll post the details tomorrow, I should've gone to sleep hours ago. I did this with KK** vs AA**. Basically what it indicated was that in order to call with KK** the stacks should be deep enough that you will get 1.6:1 on the flop. So your opponent would have to bet and then call a raise. It would be correct to do this on the flop about 25% of the time, the rest of the time a fold would be correct. For example, if there will be $100 in the pot after the flop, your opponent should still have at least $165 in front of them after the flop (thus you will have to put in $165 to win $265 as 265/165 = 1.6). Or, more simply, if your opponent makes a pot sized raise/reraise preflop, he should have at least five times the amount of the raise behind in order for calling with KK** to be correct.

[Aisthesis]

What I mean by the "open card problem" is that a lot depends on just what AA villain has. Just a trivial example from your K82 board: If villain has AAKK, you're in REALLY bad shape.

More frequent is not knowing whether your flush draw is live. I think a good rule of thumb is to figure it as around 25% that villain has the flush draw: 50% that he has the appropriate A and then 50% that he has a flush card to go with it. But if villain is tighter in his selection of which AA hands to re-raise (e.g., always ds), then it goes up to 50% that he has flush draw.

The "any 4" actually isn't all that bad, although I don't do it (to begin with, I don't raise with any 4, so the situation never arises). Fairly junky ds isn't in bad shape vs. known AA and is in pretty decent shape if you have some kind of straighting cards in there.

I think most pair hands are in the worst shape against AA with the exception of ds connecting 2 pair, which I read somewhere are the best AA crackers of all.

[Aisthesis]

Do you think 6789r is auto-call? ss is auto-call for me, but I'm not sure if it's rainbow...

[Aisthesis]

I'll be interested to see this. I definitely don't call with KK72r, but I'll probably felt on KKQJds if I have to--although a lot of the stuff here tends to show that even KKQJds is pretty marginal on the call. I just think you need a fair number of KK hands in your raising range (more than KKQQds), and KKQJds is pretty monstrous.

I'll even raise and call a re-raise with KK67ds.

But anyhow, I'll be very interested to see what you come up with when you do a more exact equity calculation than mine (which basically counter-factually assumed linearity).

[iggymcfly]

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More frequent is not knowing whether your flush draw is live. I think a good rule of thumb is to figure it as around 25% that villain has the flush draw: 50% that he has the appropriate A and then 50% that he has a flush card to go with it. But if villain is tighter in his selection of which AA hands to re-raise (e.g., always ds), then it goes up to 50% that he has flush draw.

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BTW, this is also off by quite a bit. If you actually have a flush draw, there are several cards of that suit that can't be in villain's hand, so if he's reraising with any AAxx, it's only 18% he has a better flush draw. Even if you think he's more likely to reraise good aces, I'd never estimate it higher than 25% or so. I have yet to run into a player that I could say with confidence is only reraising double-suited aces.