Live Game: 1-2-5, AK

[JSnoop]

This game is about typical for this locale - one tight player who is pretty easy to read, one terrible player, and the rest just bad. Game is 7 handed. Lots of limping and only a few small raises are the norm. Game is 1-2, 5 minimum to come in.

UTG $80 Terrible player
UTG+1 $240 Tight player
Hero $180 My image is TAG, if any of these guys are paying attention, which is unlikely.

Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Terrible player limps, as he hasn't folded a hand in about an hour, Tight player makes it 17 to go. I have played with this guy several times in the past, when he raises, it is always a pair TT+, AK, AQ is the worst hand I have ever seen him raise. 1 player in between calls, I choose to call, terrible player calls, we go to flop 4 handed.

Given raisers range, should I have just shoved here? A reraise to 50 or 60, if called leaves me pretty much committed anyway, and if moved in on same thing, right? Or can I fold if reraised all in, knowing he has AA/KK?

Flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks, terrible player bets $12, tight player min-raises to $25, 1 fold, Hero???

[canvasbck]

Given the extremely tight range you give UTG+1, I see this as a call. I'm assuming by the way the OP is worded that you highly suspect AA/KK here. The pot is laying you a little better than 4:1 for the NFD so even if he has AA, you are getting correct odds. Against a lot of villains this is a shove with your stack size but with this villain a call isn't too bad though. BTW, if villain had AA/KK, his bet size was horrible and should be noted.

[maltaille]

You imply the tight player isn't going to raise the flop without an overpair, so you can place him fairly firmly (you can also place him fairly firmly in the bad player category given this bet sizing), but is he going to pay off if you hit your flush (or an A or K falls and it's an overcard to his pair)? Is the terrible player going to reraise (I'd guess not given his bet sizing, but I've seen stranger things)? Do you give yourself any additional outs for the A or K to either player (i.e. does the terrible player have more than 1 pair already, is it possible the tight player has QQ or JJ?)?

You're getting direct odds to call for your flush alone (no chance either player also has a flush draw?), so assuming you're fairly confident you aren't going to be reraised (or that any reraise isn't going to destroy your odds - while an all-in reraise from the terrible player will take your direct odds down to 3:1 if the tight player just calls it, that's probably OK given the pot size, stacks, and what that means for your implied odds. Consider the chance of an all-in reraise from the terrible player, and the tight player coming over the top, though it's not what I'd expect to see here) it's an easy call. If you think you have good implied odds here even without a reraise (which I think you probably do, again due to stack sizes and the unlikelihood that the tight player can get away from an overpair even if a flush falls) then it's a no brainer.

It's probably not a raise because of the possibility of folding out the terrible player or getting reraised again by the tight player.

FWIW, I like the call pre-flop. You're OOP, you want to keep the terrible player in the pot, you're behind the original raisers range (the only question here is whether you'll get paid off if an overcard to his pair hits, and in this case the other factors here outweigh that), and you feel like you can outplay them both post-flop.

[JSnoop]

Yes, I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that when he raised this flop, he had a pair over the board. I ruled out a set of tens at that point, and figured him for JJ+. This guy almost always raises the exact same amount preflop, and if he has a pair over the board, he raises any bet or bets it small, if he had AK he would fold if someone bet and he missed. You both have said call, is there no merit in trying to force this tight player off of JJ or QQ? If I shove, it is 135 or so more for him to call. Even if he does call, I still have the odds to hit my flush, and if I do happen to have an over or two I am even better off, right? Can't he put me on a set of 8s or 4s with this play as well?

[canvasbck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that when he raised this flop, he had a pair over the board. I ruled out a set of tens at that point, and figured him for JJ+. This guy almost always raises the exact same amount preflop, and if he has a pair over the board, he raises any bet or bets it small, if he had AK he would fold if someone bet and he missed. You both have said call, is there no merit in trying to force this tight player off of JJ or QQ? If I shove, it is 135 or so more for him to call. Even if he does call, I still have the odds to hit my flush, and if I do happen to have an over or two I am even better off, right? Can't he put me on a set of 8s or 4s with this play as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with your read, the call is a much better option. You don't currently know if your A and/or your K are live. You do know that you have current odds to call even if they are not. If villain has JJ or QQ, you are a favorite right now, so why get him off the hand?? This type of villain will often shut down after the flop with JJ or QQ anyway. The more I read this hand the more I like calling the flop, if you whiff the turn take a stab if checked to or calling another undersized bet. All of the hands you put the tighty on are being played horribly, let him continue to play bad [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] BTW why do you rule out TT??

Edit: If you were heads up with almost any other player, I would be saying shove.

[ijustliketoplay]

i would raise here normally but in this spot it seems like an easy call: great price (and even better if u keep the donk in) and prob little or no chance of getting villain to fold

[maltaille]

[ QUOTE ]
You both have said call, is there no merit in trying to force this tight player off of JJ or QQ? If I shove, it is 135 or so more for him to call. Even if he does call, I still have the odds to hit my flush, and if I do happen to have an over or two I am even better off, right? Can't he put me on a set of 8s or 4s with this play as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not much merit imho, no. You want to win as big a pot as you can, with as little risk as you can. Attempting to use something as nebulous as FE against a hand that might be (rightly) unfoldable here, not to mention against someone who isn't necessarily thinking through all the options (as most low limit live players don't) just increases your risk without any compensatory increase in the amount you are likely win.

[JSnoop]

I'm in the BB - if I whiff the turn, my equity in this hand goes way down. Also, if he does have JJ-QQ-KK, if my Ace hits, he gets off the hand. As far as why try to get them off the hand, I am behind. I may be favored, but I am not ahead, I still have to hit to win. What happens if I do hit my Ace on the turn - I have to act first. If I bet out, they fold, if I check, they check behind unless they have TT or AA. I ruled out TT because if he had a huge hand such as a set, I believe that he would raise more in that instance. But, if I'm wrong, that is the only way he comes in if my Ace or K hits against him. If he does have AA, if I convince him I have a set, he may fold, and again, if he calls, I still have the hearts.

I see a lot of merit in shoving even against this opponent. But, I can also appreciate the call here as well. I felt this was a very close decision, but it appears that you guys all like the call better - why exactly? Is it because of the bad player coming in for the extra 13 dollars behind me? Or because you don't think the tight player will lay this down anyway?

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it because of the bad player coming in for the extra 13 dollars behind me? Or because you don't think the tight player will lay this down anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bit of both I would say. The TAG player doesn't seem to be a good player, given his betting/raising sizes. Due to that, it might be very difficult to push him off his overpair, so why try it. Plus the dead money of the bad player is a pot sweetener for us, increasing our odds. So, I wouldn't mind a raise on the flop, but a shove seems to be a rather bad idea. Calling seems best alternative for me, too, though...

[maltaille]

It doesn't matter so much that the tight player might not lay it down - you have more than 50% equity against his range. But you also have another player in the mix whom you are way, way ahead of, who isn't likely to fold after you call, and your implied odds are OK for the majority of your outs - the tight player may be able to lay it down to an overcard, but is he able to lay it down to a low heart (as an aside, if he's always going to lay down QQ/JJ/KK to an A in this situation, you would be justified calling with a low heart draw, counting being able to bluff an overcard as increasing your outs, next time you don't have the short stack along)?

Additionally, both players have shown their bet sizing is atrocious. Even if you miss the turn, you're not likely to face a bet that doesn't give you odds to call.

So pushing here, where you are a marginal favorite, increases your variance, and potentially reduces the size of the final pot.

All that said, your argument for pushing is mostly correct, and it's not a terrible move. It will still be +EV, just not as much as calling.