Live deep £3-£3 PL, monster draw on flop

[Paul Levy]

Loose £3-£3 live Pot Limit game, stacks and bet sizes are approximate but substantially correct. My image is solid TAG, Villain 1 is super aggro and knows me quite well, he just lost a sizeable pot where he paid me off with A-rag vs AQ. Villain 2 is quite straightforward and predictable. How do you rate my line, the flop play in particular.

SB: Villain1 (£600)
BB: Hero (£1,400)
MP2: Villain2 (£600)

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5s 6s

UTG limps, folded to Villain2 who raises the pot to £15, button calls, Villain1 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls. Pot £75.

Flop: 8s 7s 5d

Villain1 checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Villain2 bets the pot: £75, button folds, Villain1 calls, Hero calls, UTG folds. Pot: £300

Turn: Ah

Villain1 bets the pot: £300, Hero calls £300, Villain2 folds. Pot: £900

River: 6c

Villain1 checks, Hero checks.

[CalledDownLight]

I repot the flop here. You don't necessarily have any clean outs with the call from villian one and if he's super aggro then he probably didn't flop huge. You still have good equity vs. a set though and are flipping vs. the overpair that villian2 probably has and he has to act with villian1 still to act after calling a pot size flop bet. He'll also know that you're not folding anything after you make that raise. Even vs. a set your equity is pretty good and all your outs are pretty obvious and will likely slow villian's down.

As played, I think you can fold the turn but that action is seriously pretty [censored] up.

[Albert Moulton]

Fold preflop. You are out of position. You don't even have good relative position, which you might if the preflop raiser was immediately to your right in a multi-way pot.

If you insist on taking a flop OOP, then pot the flop with a donk bet. Don't get fancy with the c/r because everybody might check behind. If you fold out missed overcards and missed low pocket pars, then that's fine with you. If you get raised by the preflop raiser and you think he'll go all the way with an overpair, then keep potting it until you're all-in on the flop.

I'm not a fan of c/c the flop, c/c the turn, and c/f the river. You had no fold equity in this line because you never bet or raised. You paid in pot-sized installments on each street so you don't have good pot odds. And the implied odds can't be reliable if you hit the flush because overpairs with no spades probably fold if you make a big bet on a 3rd spade at the turn or river.

[Paul Levy]

Many thanks to both for your thorough responses.
This game was really very loose and my image very conservative so I was happy to create some noise by spewing a few chips preflop with a hand that can turn into a strong draw, particularly with position on Villain1.

Indeed, I regret not repopping the flop. Villain2 might or might not have laid down the overpair, while I might have been able to get Villain1 to muck whatever junk he was peeling with (the turn bet was suggestive of an A).

[uminchu]

i think the flop sucks man dont mind getting it in here but think a raise is most definitely in order.

i at least like that you call the turn, and checking the river is of course right and i suspect that you won the pot but still dont see him calling a bet with anything on the river that you ll beat

i really think you need to be aggressive on this flop, especially with villain twos probable dead money

villain 1 never folds an overpair but you are ahead of that here

just some ranges i came up wtih before sleepy time
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

652,869 games 0.016 secs 40,804,312 games/sec

Board: 8s 7s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.574% 57.20% 00.38% 373420 2465.33 { 6s5s }
Hand 1: 27.056% 26.40% 00.66% 172328 4310.33 { TT+, AQs+ }
Hand 2: 15.370% 14.71% 00.66% 96035 4310.33 { JJ-99, A8s }

i really dont see villain with a set here much at all even if he does have one your still ahead of his range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

761,229 games 0.031 secs 24,555,774 games/sec

Board: 8s 7s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.321% 54.94% 00.38% 418206 2912.67 { 6s5s }
Hand 1: 30.305% 29.68% 00.62% 225929 4757.67 { TT+, 88-77, AQs+ }
Hand 2: 14.375% 13.75% 00.62% 104666 4757.67 { JJ-99, A8s }

[maltaille]

I don't mind the call pre-flop - your implied odds are good, and I appreciate the metagame aspect of loosening up your image if you get to showdown - and I also don't mind the check on the flop with so many opponents at that level of aggression, but once the flop hits your implied odds go way down. Even the most stubborn overpair is going to think twice about continuing if a danger card hits the turn or river.

On the other hand, it's a pot-limit game, and you are relatively deep, so your FE is limited. I think a set isn't at all unlikely either - there are more than enough people in that pot for someone to be calling with a medium pair pre-flop.

There's a strong argument to check-raise the flop. You're likely to clean up some of your outs, you've got fantastic equity against the majority of your opponent's ranges (though you'll look silly if there is a set and higher connectors or flush draw out there), it's a strong enough move that you will have significant FE (especially given villain1's likely range, and villain2's weak call), and there are huge metagame benefits for the next time you flop a set and push (villain1 knowing you quite well implies that you play this game regularly, which means that it might be worth a little effort to present yourself a particular way, particularly if he's that aggro).

There is an equally good counter argument though - your hand is actually so good here that the only way you can be priced out of it on the turn is if there is a pot bet and a pot raise in front of you. You have good pot odds (not even considering implied odds here, which I don't think are good given how scary the board is for any second best hand) to call a pot size bet regardless of the turn: you're 45% against A(KT)o, him having one spade doesn't affect things much, and even if he has A8 or A9 you're still better than 2:1. You don't even drop much if he has a set, 7:3. The only thing that really hurts you is a made straight, which is pretty unlikely here.

So, I think it comes down to how do you want to approach variance, and what do you think your implied odds are like? Call the flop (and any turn that doesn't make your hand) if you think your implied odds are good and you want to cut down on variance, check-raise the flop if you don't care about variance and you think your implied odds aren't that good. The only thing you shouldn't do is fold.

[CalledDownLight]

you guys are overestimating turn outs. Although he could have up to 20, I think it would be more realistic to set the number at around 13.

[ijustliketoplay]

call pre flop is fine, plenty good enough odds to call in this game. Check raise flop though. this is one of those beautiful spots where you dont mind either outcome - picking up the pot there and then or playing for stacks.

there's also some good image value to be had in flipping this one over