Big Stacks, Blind vs Blind

[Stumpy]

$11 10 minute levels on Stars.
We're down to about 55 players out of 900, and I'm chipleader with 100k.
BB has been at the table 10 hands and he's about 5th in chips.

BB had 60k when he moved to the table 1 round ago, called a short all in w/ 77, and raised once and took the blinds.

I've raised and re-raised one hand in EP and raised A7s in LP and took out a short stack.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed)

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t97451)</font>
<font color="#C00000">BB (t74300)</font>
UTG (t50691)
UTG+1 (t29544)
MP1 (t34288)
MP2 (t26307)
CO (t17545)
Button (t81261)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t9000</font>, BB calls t6000.

Flop: (t20400) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t12000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t24000</font>, Hero?

[b-komplex]

thats half his stack so I'd give him credit for the king

[All_In_Olly]

This is a typical spot where I get myself into trouble by convincing myself the opponent is bluffing without a genuine read.

The fact is you have no reads to indicate he's got air so you need to fold.

I don't mind the c bet as you've got a K you can represent, and there's no J or T, but he's now telling you he's got a K and you need to believe him IMO.

From his perspective you've done nothing particularly laggy in the 10 hands you've played together so he's got no reason to assume you're bluffing, and given his apparent solid play he would only raise with a hand.

[Pokerfarian]

SPR of 3, 77 on K62 in BvB, you might be committed, I need to buy that new PNL book :-o. Folding 77- does seem rather exploitable to me

[All_In_Olly]

I don't think the exploitable argument holds given villain doesn't have a read that hero is weak.

It may well be that villain is hugely aggressive on the flop every time, but we just don't know that yet.

What is SPR by the way?

[Stumpy]

Olly,

I agree, I certainly get myself in a lot of trouble with stuff like this.
Blind vs Blind with two big stacks, I think BB is defending with a wide range of hands.

The min raise is scary, but a certain group would also do that with a 6, a flush draw, or air, because I can so easily be FOS.
Unfortunately I don't know how big/small that group is.

When I get raised, it's obviously push or fold, because he'd only have 40k behind in a 70k pot.
I've got 2nd pair and flush draws beat, and nothing is possible too.

If I push I'm risking 52k for 56k if he folds, and 108k if he calls.

I'd be almost break-even if he folded 25% of the time, called with a Set/K 60%, and flush draw+overs 15%.

If he ever calls with A6o or something like that, I'm even.

Is it unreasonable to think I can get a fold 25% of the time?

[All_In_Olly]

Did you look him up on OPR at the time?

If you did and he's good then I think he's only folding to an all in if he's bluffing or has a smaller pair, and he's very rarely bluffing or raising the flop here with a smaller pair (given he has no reason to think you're weak), so he's folding &lt;&lt;25%.

If you didn't have a chance to look him up then we have to go with the read we have on him which is that he is reasonably tight and has been sensible in his play so far.
In which case he is again rarely bluffing and folding, so &lt;&lt;25%.

I also think the flush draw is not that likely, though still in his range. I would expect a bigger raise from him on the flop so he gets more fold equity.

I assume he's calling an all in from you with a flush draw as he's not quite getting the odds but its not far off and he's probably factoring in a bluff from you/other outs he may have/thinks he has from pairing up.

But I don't think he has the flush draw often enough for your all in to work.
I think he has a better hand too often here.

Then again I'll caveat all the above by saying that these scenarios are a weakness in my game.

[Pokerfarian]

[ QUOTE ]
(given he has no reason to think you're weak)

[/ QUOTE ]
Surely most your SB opening range has missed this flop &amp; your cbetting it a lot.

[hamnegger]

boy oh boy he may be making a move on us here but 77 just isn't strong enough to call. a king fits a calling not reraising preflop in b vs b situation. you may have been outplayed but accept it and move on with a good size stack. hell he may have 88 u still are losing.i dont think its a flush draw.

[All_In_Olly]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(given he has no reason to think you're weak)

[/ QUOTE ]
Surely most your SB opening range has missed this flop &amp; your cbetting it a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

But is he willing to raise a strong OOP bet if the flop has missed him completely and he just has A or K high or he has a pair of 6s or 2s, even if he thinks it might be a c bet?

He could still have air but we've got no info that suggests this, IMO.