Triple value bet gone wrong

[Bond18]

Stars 50+5 short handed. Villain new to table, no numbers either. I felt like like it was worth going for 3 streets of value here especially with the board being drawy and my having a strong kicker but maybe you guys disagree?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP (t7070)
Hero (t6305)
SB (t4790)
BB (t5610)
UTG (t5075)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t650) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, BB calls t400.

Turn: (t1450) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t900</font>, BB calls t900.

River: (t3250) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t4010</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t6050

[ASPoker8]

With these stack sizes and the turn being so drawy, I would bet a little more on the turn, and then tank and shove the river.

As played, its really hard to put him on a hand that beats you.

He is a complete and utter retard to ever have 33, JJ, AA, AJ, A3, J3, A8 here.

He has to be pretty moronic to have A9 or J9..

Maybe something like Js8s, TsQs, Ts7s, 9s8s?

I can't put villain on a hand and you're getting a great price, i just call

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]


He is a complete and utter retard to ever...

He has to be pretty moronic...


[/ QUOTE ]

I find it increasingly expensive every time i believe these assumptions to not be true about unknowns.

[KneeCo]

Adam kind of covered the river decision, we only need to be right one time in four and it's hard to see the hand that beats us. At the same time, if he has bricked a draw and decided not to give up, how is he checking the river?

Am I hating money and/or results oriented if I don't often make the thin river value bet here?? I think this might be a get to showdown spot given that while I'm confident hero is good there's no point betting against a busted draw and if he doesn't have that I'm not really sure what he has.

[Bond18]

BTW, i totally agree with you guys river is very questionable and perhaps wrong.

My dilemma though, is i cannot rememeber the last time i got CR'd AI on the river on stars and didn't get shown a big hand.

[Double Ice]

Bet fold is fine vs donkeys

You have to understand how these ppl think

A8, I have top pair, if he's got an ace I'm beat, but I'll call.

Now he bet the turn again, he probably has me beat, but he could have a draw, I'll call

Bongo Bango I hit my 2 pair, so I'll check raise

[ASPoker8]

Ok, so A8 makes sense if he is a donk.

What else can he possibly have? I feel like this is one of those times where we have to call the river c/r because his line makes sense with so few hands that are ahead of us and because it makes sense for him to attempt some crazy bluff with all the draws missing.

I just cant give people credit for playing hands like AA, JJ, 99, 88, 33, AJ, A3, J3, A9, etc like this..

[degenrat]

AJ, A8 or a set all played badly and all ahead of us. i love the fold and dislike the value river bet.

[T_Mac]

easy value bet

I wouldn't like it but given that price on the river I'd call him down and get ready to mentally berate him

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
easy value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say that if we had 1400 behind going to the river, it's an automatic value-shove, but because of how the hand developed, because hero is unsure of villain's range beyond busted draws (against which he doesn't want to bet given that villain is never calling and hero is folding to a shove) I think he should can just check behind and get his one pair to showdown.

This isn't a deepstacked hand by any stretch, but I'm still reminded of what MLG and imsolucky said in the 'going deeper' discussion.

(of course I'm one of the people who thought checking behind on the thayer rivered set hand was weak, so I don't know, maybe I'm nuts).