Stud8 - tournament bubble, icky 4th st spot

[RubbishCards]

Stars $22, top 6 get paid, 6th pays $78, 5th pays $90

Seat 1 plays 10/20+ at Stars, I think he's probably good then. Seat 2 has done a couple of weird things, he might be a standard tournament mouth-breather.

Tournament - 7 Card Stud High-Low - Level XI (500/1,000), Ante 100, Bring-In 150 (converter)

Seat 1: 25,539
Seat 2: 6,613
Seat 3: 12,320
Seat 4: 13,058
Seat 6: 4,965
Hero: 12,591
Seat 8: 8,914

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___raises
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (7.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds

Is this even a standard fold in a cash game? I really want to see 1 more card, my pair outs are falling dead but it is impossible for me to make a low without also picking up at a straight draw.

[Alchemist]

I think it's a good fold for a number of reasons; not least of which being the stack sizes. Folding here leaves you with 7814 and Seat 6 with 4865. Plus Seat 2 could very well go broke this hand.

Your low cards are pretty live but I don't think this is a spot to risk your tournament life, esp being on the bubble. If you call 4th, do you think you can fold 5th if you catch bad or if either of your opponents catch scary cards? Would you still like your hand a lot on 5th even if you catch a 6 or 7?

I put the BI on a big pair and Seat 2 on a decent/connected low draw. If so, then you're in second place in both directions. How tight has the play been on the bubble? Has this action been out of the ordinary?

[adanthar]

seat 2 is trying to get all in, ie, he never has anything.

I'm in this hand until the river.

[2461Badugi]

I would limp this on third, given the tournament situation. I think folding fourth is ok, because you're going to continue to get jammed, but I'd much rather do it in a smaller pot.

With hands that are usually going to become really big or really small on fourth, I prefer to wait until fourth to start jamming in stack-critical situations.

[Andy B]

I take all bets on fourth and maybe reevaluate on fifth.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I would limp this on third, given the tournament situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't get a big stack in a limit tournament by refusing to ride the variance train when you have a substantial edge against people who suck.

Pretend Seat 1 got the 8 and you got the 3 (which is likely a worse card for your equity than the 8 is). Do you realize just how big an advantage you get by raising on third if you now follow through and bet fourth/the shortstack raises/Seat 1 decides to fold for some reason?