Just another trips with no kicker.

Borys313 · #1 08-18-2007, 08:25 PM

PokerStars 10/20 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

If you play [censored] hands without an A you end up in such situations alot, so whats your plan??

Buzz · #2 08-19-2007, 12:14 AM

Borys - MP2 doesn't necessarily have a king. MP2 might suspect nobody has a king and you might be trying to steal the pot. Or MP2 might simply be gambling. Or MP2 might be planning to simply out-play you from favorable position behind you.

By betting this flop, as you did, you're not guaranteeing that you have a king. Lots of people will bet this flop from early position against four opponents without a king. If the opening better doesn't have a king himself, the probability at least one of four opponents will have at least one king is
2*C(43,15)+1*C(43,14) over C(45,16) =
3.8144EE11/6.466EE11 = 0.5899. Thus there would be, from the standpoint of someone in opening position without a king, about two chances in five nobody behind him had a king or two.

Lots of people will bet this flop from first position without a king, planning to possibly check/fold if anyone continues. If nobody does continue, the opening bettor has risked three small bets to possibly win ten small bets.

Countering that, a shrewd MP2 without a king might take a chance on continuing in case the opening bettor was trying to steal the pot. A stupid MP2 might continue for a variety of other reasons having nothing to do with the foregoing analysis. Thus a shrewd MP2 and a stupid MP2 might both continue to a bet after this flop for different reasons.

I agree with you that it's a hateful position in which to to be.

One of your problems is you are out of position. If you check, MP2 might (or might not) bet a king and MP2 might (or might not) bet without a king. You cannot tell for certain whether MP2 has a king whether he bets or not after you check.

If you do bet into MP2, given that you probably have a solid reputation, you probably don't get called unless MP2 has a king. That's not guaranteed and depends on MP2 as well as your table image.

If MP2 does have a king, you probably are out-kicked. If he simply has random three cards with a king, he's about seven to four to have you out-kicked, and besides having you out-kicked he might have a full house. Does not look good for you, but you'll win often enough that you should not check/fold.

Assuming MP2 bets after you check, you call, and MP2 also bets the river, and you call again even if not improved, you're getting almost 3 to 1 (reverse implied?) pot odds. Plus you still have a chance to improve to a full house which might (or might not) win.

So what to do at this point?

I don't think you can fold.

After eliminating folding, I prefer directly betting this turn to check/calling or check/raising.

Your dilemma makes a good case for not completing from the small blind with crap.

Buzz

jlocdog · #3 08-19-2007, 12:19 AM

PF seems a bit loose. That is one bad hand.

As played, bet turn. I see no benefits in checking it here.