Boat vs nit - fold?

HeheOkok · #1 08-18-2007, 05:27 PM

Villain is playing 17/12/2.5ish. No real history between the two of us. Seems to be a good, aggressive nit. He should see me as pretty laggy, aggressive.

Fwiw, villain thinks for a while on the flop. Calls quickly on the turn and pushes the river fairly quickly.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $4735.00
UTG+1: $7267.00
CO: $727.00
Button: $3970.00
SB: $4343.00
HERO: $4444.00

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, SB raises to $60, HERO calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($130, 2 players)
SB bets $140, HERO raises to $425, SB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($980, 2 players)
SB checks, HERO bets $715, SB calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2410, 2 players)
SB is all-in $3143

hero ?

aislephive · #2 08-18-2007, 05:37 PM

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hero ?

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Should post this in BBV?

HeheOkok · #3 08-18-2007, 05:43 PM

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hero ?

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Should post this in BBV?

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Guess that means that I should call, so what do you put him on? I would like some analysis. No instacall or move down [censored].

I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this.
I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw.

FabledHero · #4 08-18-2007, 06:07 PM

Almost everytime I see someone just shove when a flush hits they pretty much have a boat. The most likely holding he has here is QQ imo, mb 66, and possibly the nut flush. He has one of those 3 hands or complete air, the latter isn't likely.

aislephive · #5 08-18-2007, 07:50 PM

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hero ?

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Should post this in BBV?

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Guess that means that I should call, so what do you put him on? I would like some analysis. No instacall or move down [censored].

I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this.
I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw.

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If he thinks you would even consider folding a boat here, let alone a flush, this is a great spot to bluff. He can also put you on a flush and value shove a strong flush. He could have missed a draw and made a desperate bluff attempt, etc. It's blind on blind here as well which widens ranges considerably. You shouldn't even consider folding this, besides 17/12 is nitty but it's not like he is some ultranit, you even said he is aggressive / good. Just get the money in here and don't think twice about it.

Kirkrrr · #6 08-18-2007, 08:05 PM

Wow... really nasty spot. I don't think he's ever bluffing and I don't see him playing a flush this way on a paired board unless he's a complete retard, and stats indicate otherwise... I'd really, really hate calling there a lot.

To one of the other posters, no one in their right mind overbet bluffs hoping to get their opponents will lay down monsters, it's cost-prohibitive so I think you can safely toss the if-he-thinks-you-may-lay-down-a-boat-he-should-be-bluffing line out the window because 17/12's (or most rational opponents) are simply never doing that. To put another way, when was the last time you put your opponent on 2nd nuts and decided to make him lay it down?

Kirk

HeheOkok · #7 08-18-2007, 09:10 PM

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hero ?

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Should post this in BBV?

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Guess that means that I should call, so what do you put him on? I would like some analysis. No instacall or move down [censored].

I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this.
I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he thinks you would even consider folding a boat here, let alone a flush, this is a great spot to bluff. He can also put you on a flush and value shove a strong flush. He could have missed a draw and made a desperate bluff attempt, etc. It's blind on blind here as well which widens ranges considerably. You shouldn't even consider folding this, besides 17/12 is nitty but it's not like he is some ultranit, you even said he is aggressive / good. Just get the money in here and don't think twice about it.

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I'm sorry, but you are just way way off in everything you're writing.

Missed draw? What draw missed?

17/12 not ultranitty?

A 17/12 floating two streets OOP and overbet-shoving when all draws hit because he thinks he might get me to fold a full house AND/OR get me to call an overbet on a paired board with a lower flush than his presumed nut flush?

Blinds vs blind so he could have a wide range calling my flop RR and pot bet on the turn?

HeheOkok · #8 08-18-2007, 09:11 PM

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Wow... really nasty spot. I don't think he's ever bluffing and I don't see him playing a flush this way on a paired board unless he's a complete retard, and stats indicate otherwise... I'd really, really hate calling there a lot.

To one of the other posters, no one in their right mind overbet bluffs hoping to get their opponents will lay down monsters, it's cost-prohibitive so I think you can safely toss the if-he-thinks-you-may-lay-down-a-boat-he-should-be-bluffing line out the window because 17/12's (or most rational opponents) are simply never doing that. To put another way, when was the last time you put your opponent on 2nd nuts and decided to make him lay it down?

Kirk

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So...fold?

tcorbin16 · #9 08-18-2007, 09:12 PM

if he has QQ so be it... snap call man.

Kirkrrr · #10 08-18-2007, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow... really nasty spot. I don't think he's ever bluffing and I don't see him playing a flush this way on a paired board unless he's a complete retard, and stats indicate otherwise... I'd really, really hate calling there a lot.

To one of the other posters, no one in their right mind overbet bluffs hoping to get their opponents will lay down monsters, it's cost-prohibitive so I think you can safely toss the if-he-thinks-you-may-lay-down-a-boat-he-should-be-bluffing line out the window because 17/12's (or most rational opponents) are simply never doing that. To put another way, when was the last time you put your opponent on 2nd nuts and decided to make him lay it down?

Kirk

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So...fold?

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In a vacuum, probably. Since we're not in a vacuum, use recent history/past history/the way he's playing now/bet timing to see if you can gain any other clues. If none of those help, I think folding would be best.

Incidentally, if you have been attacking him a lot or are up on him this session this would make it a much, much easier fold.

Kirk