what do I do on this turn 200nl 3 handed

[AceMason]

What should I do on this turn? (I misclicked my mouse sizing the bet preflop, I was going to make it 26 to go anyways... what do I do on this turn?)

Villains stats are 20/15/4 over ~50 hands, seems normal


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (3 handed)
Button ($199.20)
SB ($572.60)
Hero ($359.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qc, Qs.
Button raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $24, Button calls $15.

Flop: ($47) 4s, 8h, Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $33, Button calls $33.

Turn: ($113) Js (2 players)

[BDaws]

I think check and evaluate is best. If he makes one of those retarded small bets, just call and decide what to do on the river. If he makes a pot committing bet, then I think c/rAI is fine. If it checks through, try to make a small vbet on river.

His range for calling the flop is probably something like JJ, ATs, JTs, T9s, 99, 98s, 97s, 76s, 66, 55, spades.

The hands we still have beat on the turn:
Board: Js Ts 8h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 86.765% 86.76% 00.00% 1298 0.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 13.235% 13.24% 00.00% 198 0.00 { 99, 66-55, ATs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 76s }

We have a significant equity advantage and there aren't that many bad cards in the deck. We aren't really worried about another spade because the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is on the board so ATs with spades is impossible.
Also, most of these hands would fold to a double barrel, but might call a river v-bet.

As for the hands that have us beat(JJ, JT, 97, spades) we aren't in too bad of shape. When I was trying to pokerstove it, I realized there are almost no holdings he could have to make a flush that played in this manner. All reasonable suited spade hands would have flopped either a pair+FD or gutter+FD on the flop and most likely would've pushed.

So against JJ, JTs, 97, we are 69/31 dogs. That isn't that bad considering there are only 3 combos of each hand (4 of 97s but he would've pushed flop with spades). I don't think this changes how we should play the hand in terms of whether or not to c/r AI or just c/c because we have outs and we are good against most of his range so we do not want to fold.

[AceMason]

As is I made a bet of 70 on turn which left me 75 behind and he shoved with 88... of course I had to call knowing I was only worried about an ace or king flush... Anyways, solid analysis BDaws. The thing with crai is if he makes any reasonable bet he's pot commited... of course I guess I don't mind that if he's behind. As is I got my money in 30/70, he played it well, althought that was a horrible turn card to commit to with his hand since the only hands in my range he beats are qq, kk and aa with a spade, so he's not ahead by much.