Chances of outflopping Aces

[NooBster]

Ribs,

Took me a second to understand your last post. In that situation I make a note of my villian's pre flop raise and step cautiously against him the next time knowing that he may have gone from playing his overpair to his sidecars. Nice hand for you though.

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
Tight opponent re-pots and you're 99% sure he has AAxx. If you call, you'll have effective stacks of one PSB on the flop. He will put the rest in on any flop.

What are my chances of hitting a flop to give my hand >50% equity vs bare Aces with

a) four random cards
b) KKQJ double suited
c) 9876 rainbow
d) 9876 double suited?

[/ QUOTE ]
about 1 in 3.

[Poker monkey]

Thanks RoundTower. How do you arrive at this number?

This must also vary by the type of hand you're holding - does 9876 ds flop better equity vs Aces than 7766 for example, or KKJT?

The second part of my question is, how does this out-flopping probability affect our play versus the Aces with these stack sizes? The trouble with calling pre-flop is although you'll sometimes out-flop your opponent and get the rest of your money in as a favourite, quite often you'll flop a pair with 3 live sidecards or a weak draw, and have equity in the 30-40% region on the flop. So you have to call the flop bet, but you find yourself putting more money in while behind. So there's a hidden cost to the pre-flop call.

[RoundTower]

I just guessed. I think the best way to answer your questions is to spend an hour or so on www.propokertools.com.

[Poker monkey]

Using propokertools is certainly possible although I'd basically have to run the simulation a couple of hundred times for each situation, typing in random flops, and noting down the flop equities each time. If I were a better programmer, computer simulation would probably be the way forward. But I expect someone's worked all this out already.

Then there's also the question of whether calling pre-flop with these stacks is +EV (I suspect the answer is no). The more I think about it, I realise I shouldn't mind calling a PSB with 35% equity on the flop, as this is a +EV bet. The question is whether these +EV calls post-flop are enough to make up for the -EV call pre-flop.

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
I make more and more of my money not from playing aces myself, but from recognizing that my opponent has aces and playing his hand against him. I'll take a flop with the theoritical A,B,C, and D hands against aces all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, I'm 95% certain you're the typical PLO fish that has a chronic desire to outflop aces (because its 52/48 ldo and because you read Ted Forest played every hand dealt to him for a month and won), that you pretty much call with NE4, that you pretty much think every preflop raise is AA, and I am even more certain that your opponents do quite well against you with Aces.

Nice short-stack in the hand you posted, btw.

[bachfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Using propokertools is certainly possible although I'd basically have to run the simulation a couple of hundred times for each situation, typing in random flops, and noting down the flop equities each time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. This might give you what you want. Go to this simulation, and hit the graph button.

You can tell from the first graph that KKQJ double suited against a random hand has at least 50% equity about 25% of the time.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. This might give you what you want. Go to this simulation, and hit the graph button.

You can tell from the first graph that KKQJ double suited against a random hand has at least 50% equity about 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks that's really interesting. I think this should help tournament situations where basically you want to only play hands that will flop good a high percentage of the time.

[Aisthesis]

If you're better than 2:1, the call PF isn't -EV. You're just behind.

I'd definitely call with KKQJds or 6789ds, and I'm somewhat indifferent on 6789r. The real problem is that you're also going to need to call from behind a lot on the flop, too--again, cases where you're better than 2:1 or whatever the pot is laying you, and you also don't know just what villain has with the AA. So, while I'll draw to the K-high flush if I have anything extra at all, I'm usually behind, usually by not much, but sometimes in serious trouble (if he has A-high flush draw).

[bachfan]

[ QUOTE ]

You can tell from the first graph that KKQJ double suited against a random hand has at least 50% equity about 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I meant against a random AA hand. *smacks self*