#1
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The rule of 4 and 2
A couple of questions from the quote below.
[ QUOTE ] Alice holds J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Bob holds K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. After the flop, the board is 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. If both hands are played to a showdown, Alice has a 45% chance to win, Bob has a 53% chance to win and there is a 2% chance to split the pot... [/ QUOTE ] The above is from a Wikpedia article. My question: with 14 outs (3 sevens, 4 fours, 4 nines and 3 Jacks), why isn't Alice's chances about 56%, according to the Rule of 4 and 2? Okay, let's subtract the hearts, since runner-runner heart would give Bob a flush, and say that she has only ten outs: 2 sevens, 3 fours, 3 nines and 2 Jacks. This would make her chances about 40%, no? How do we arrive at Bob's chances? Finally, do we need to discount BOTH the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AND the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], since if only one more heart arrives, it won't make Bob a flush? |
#2
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
the rule of 4 and 2 arent perfect. theyre supposed to only give an approximation. as the number of outs gets higher, it gets more inaccurate
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#3
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
First, you have to subtract outs over 8: 4X14-(14-8)=50. Then, as you mention, some of these aren't clean outs, due to the possibility of a heart flush. And finally, if Alice hits an out, the remaining kings become outs for Bob. So 45% looks about right. But to remove any doubt, you could download (for free) pokerstove, which will do all of these calculations for you:
Board: 5h 6h 8d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.859% 44.75% 01.11% 443 11.00 { Jd7s } Hand 1: 54.141% 53.03% 01.11% 525 11.00 { Kh6s } |
#4
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
WOW, Pokerstove is nice, tks for the tip.
Yep, I failed to consider that Bob could win with a redraw to the King. Discard outs above 8? I hadn't heard that. Thanks again. I'm off to watch J Harman bust up these other chicks on Poker After Dark [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#5
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
[ QUOTE ]
Discard outs above 8? I hadn't heard that. Thanks again. [/ QUOTE ] Careful--it's not discard outs over 8; it's subtract them from your total. So if you have twelve outs, you should win 44% of the time (4 times 12 equals 48, minus the 4 outs over 8 equal 44). |
#6
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Discard outs above 8? I hadn't heard that. Thanks again. [/ QUOTE ] Careful--it's not discard outs over 8; it's subtract them from your total. So if you have twelve outs, you should win 44% of the time (4 times 12 equals 48, minus the 4 outs over 8 equal 44). [/ QUOTE ] Rule of 4 works fine to 11 outs on the flop. Then every extra out is worth 3%. So, 12 outs = 47%. 13 outs = 50%, 14 outs = 53%, 15 outs = 56%. The reason your equity can be less than your outs suggest is if there are tie outs or foe has redraw outs. |
#7
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
To kind of reitrerate from earlier with a bit more detail, the rule of 2 and 4 is great for quick calculations when playing more B&M and you don't have handy little tools like poker stove avaliable to you so you can approximate for your pot odds.
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#8
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
I ask this question with the most profound advance apologies, but what is the Rule of 4 and 2? Couldn't find it in the Wik article.
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#9
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
It is a way of calculating winning percentage.
Basically, the chance of hitting any of your outs is outs X 2 so if you have 10 outs, your chances are 20% I find it's usually a little more accurate if you add 1. So 21%. If you've just seen the flop, you have 2 cards to come, not 1. So you have double the chance of hitting on of your outs, so you times by 4, not by 2. With 10 outs with 2 cards to come, you have 20% chance to make your hand by the turn and 40% by the river. |
#10
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Re: The rule of 4 and 2
Thank you! This sounds very useful to my game.
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