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#11
08-17-2007, 06:06 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
[ QUOTE ]
Oink runs good so he thinks you get check-raised on the river by one pair more than one in 12, but it is not true. [/ QUOTE ] I always run good. I have been running good for 400k hands now. When do I play good..? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Actually I often fold TP to river c/r'es. I just dont think this is a spot because AQ and KQ is in his range. I know those hands would be overplayed but they are in his range. Add to that the occasional bluff raise and I think its a call. But prolly close and I wont berate anyone for folding. [ QUOTE ] There are metagame reasons for not folding here. [/ QUOTE ] Metagayme is only a reason to fold if you cant handle how your river folds affects future river play. In itself its not necessarily bad if villains start bluff raising more rivers. Just start calling more. 
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#12
08-17-2007, 09:05 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
[ QUOTE ]
Our action doesn't necessarily define our hand as one unlikely to fold on this board [/ QUOTE ] I really disagree with this. We've called the flop c/r and raised the turn. This represents a big hand very strongly. This 43% VP$IP guy isn't thinking "aha, but his range probably includes some semibluff type hands", he's thinking "this guy has a big hand". It is of course possible that the full text of his thought is "this guy has a big hand, let me see if I can bluff him off it LOL", but I think "this guy has a big hand but I have a bigger one, yay I can check-raise the river" is much more than 12 times more likely.
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#13
08-17-2007, 09:05 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
[ QUOTE ]
I always run good. I have been running good for 400k hands now. When do I play good..? [/ QUOTE ] From what I have seen, most of the time.
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#14
08-17-2007, 09:24 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
lol sharpie "blind battle" - ORLY?
But let's be serious, nobody in this forum folds and they're better for it IMO. You don't win often but you have kings and the board came Q-high with no flush in online 6max. You know you've seen guys show up with jack-high diamonds here. I know I have.
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#15
08-17-2007, 09:33 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
[ QUOTE ]
Oink runs good [/ QUOTE ] Actually, can we replace "runs good" by "selects tables well"? If people are giving you that kind of action then I think that could be a large elememt of the difference between what you expect and what I expect.
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#16
08-17-2007, 09:40 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls, villain shows Q9, nh. [/ QUOTE ] I know I should fold here, but I never do. However, if a 28/18/2.0 check raises this river, I would strongly suggest folding, because in that spot, it really is over.
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#17
08-17-2007, 09:42 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
I almost always fold this live and call online just cause people do stupid S*&%... Right now you have a bluff catcher, this is like never for value with one pair (maybe screwed up AQ).
Realistically its probabily a fold from anyone with a sense of rational.. But so much retarded stuff happens online im just not good enough to fold here often. So many draws missed so there is so many "bluffing" hands in his range even though he almost never bluffs them. Its not good to get into the habit of laying down in situations like this, but every now and again you can fold cause in a vacuum this is probabily a -EV call. There's probabily techniques to asses when to call and when not to call in bluff catcher situations.. Either base it on metagame how am I running? How showdowny have I been? Do I want to start being a super showdown monkey after I fold this? or define a range of bluff catchers showdown with ur strongest
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#18
08-17-2007, 10:21 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
I agree with the idea that you can fold these on occasion, but you shouldn't be doing it regularly, even though it's a -EV call. I'm so rarely good in this spot, but I usually end up calling. If I had an image of a showdown monkey I could fold this, but it would probably be one of the few times.
Edit: On a side note: whenever I try and establish an image as a showdown monkey (i.e. don't bluff me), they seem to take more stabs at me. Just a curiosity I've noticed in the lower end of small stakes short-handed where people don't know how to adjust.
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#19
08-17-2007, 11:19 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hero calls, villain shows Q9, nh. [/ QUOTE ] I know I should fold here, but I never do. However, if a 28/18/2.0 check raises this river, I would strongly suggest folding, because in that spot, it really is over. [/ QUOTE ] I probably fold to river check/raises more than most people. I just cant fold in this spot. I built this beautiful pot, that river card is a total blank, I gotta see it. A rational reason to call the river in this situation escapes me at the moment, but we only need to have the best hand here 1/13 times to show a profit. Perhaps these favorable pot odds are high enough to hope for the irrational/illogical. I think so. I'll never know for sure since I cant simulate this exact situation a million times and find out the real answer.
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#20
08-17-2007, 11:28 AM
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Re: Been that kind of day
one reason to not fold in this spot is to end the hand mentally and move on. If I call and he shows Q9 I say eh he hit a 5 outer, happens 12 times a day to me, moving on...
But if I fold I can't help but think that I might have folded the winner, and before too long i'm sitting there questioning my reads and wondering what the eff I'm doing. I can afford to make a curious call in these spots and not be giving up too much (maybe not anything) and I think my mind will stay clear and I'll have more confidence. I know some people don't buy that stuff, but I can't play perfectly detached zen-like poker despite trying to get better at it.
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