What should I do with KK here?

[Newman30]

What would you do here? (Villian is loose 40% VPIP, semi-agressive)

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00/$2.00 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

BB (200.00) (Hero)
MP2 (75.42)
MP3 (397.00)
CO (38.00)
Button (30.30)
SB (244.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP3 calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, MP3 calls $8.00, CO calls $8.00,

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( $33 )
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $91.00</font>,

[Newman30]

villian stats (VPIP 40/ PFR 2/ AF 2,5 (0 preflop AF))

[Dumb Fish x]

That's really tough, I hate plays like this.

I'm inexperienced, so take my rambling with a grain of salt.

But looking at the flop, I guess his most likely holding is trips or AA. I can't see him calling your preflop raise with 9J, 9T or 56s.

The other possibility is a bluff, guessing you are holding two high cards and have totally missed the flop. Afterall, if he hit a great hand, he'd want you to call, not scare you away, and maybe would not have gone all-in with a scary looking bet.

It's a toughie for sure. Will be interested to see what he had if you played it out.

[insyder19]

I can see him calling with 78, 56, even 9J. He has position and if he hits he guesses he's gonna get paid off.

Hard decision really, the biggest problem is that you have no position, you could call that and fold the turn if it gets scary or straight fold. If I have a bad feeling I probably fold here.

[pzhon]

Let's suppose the villain always has a hand good enough to call a push. Then pushing is better than folding if you win enough against the villain's range. Pushing risks $170 to gain $170+$40+$33 = $243, ignoring the rake, so pushing is better than folding if you win at least 41% of the time. This doesn't mean you have to be ahead 41% of the time. If you usually have about 15% equity when behind (much less against a straight, slightly less against a set, more against two pair) and 65% equity when ahead, then you need to be ahead (41-15)/(65-15) = 52% of the time. I think you are ahead a bit more than this against a very loose villain who usually raises instead of calling postflop, so I think pushing is better than folding.

I think pushing is better than calling, since you are out of position and have an information disadvantage. If you call such a big raise, you have narrowed your range mainly to good pairs, probably an overpair, and while the villain doesn't know which one, that would rarely matter. Just calling would let the villain play almost perfectly against you.

So, I recommend pushing.

By the way, when you raise outside the blinds, it may be natural to raise about 4 BB + 1 for each limper. That's a rule of thumb used by many people. However, this says nothing about the natural size of a raise from the blinds, when you are out of position against limpers who rarely have strong hands, but often have speculative hands. I normally make a much larger raise from the blinds when I raise.

[Baby Mantis]

I am a newbie as well and this is above my limits, but I might would put him on a flush draw. Say AK of diamonds, or he could also be holding AA, although he might would of raised pf with AA. I think his most likely holding is a flush draw probably the nuts. It could be an absolute bluff, I myself would probably call and lose my stack when he turns trips over or catches the flush by the river. That is why I am still small stakes though, can't make the big laydowns.
What did he have btw?

[Dumb Fish x]

Baby Mantis: that sounds likely mate! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Although He can't have the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as that one is in our hero's hand.

Maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Possibly 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (I guess)

[Baby Mantis]

oops i thought it was the K of hearts I misread!!!

Sry.

[Albert Moulton]

Call, and push the turn if it is a diamond (since he might not have the flush draw, and if he does, you have a redraw), or a non-diamond other than 6, 9, or Jack.

Actually, a read more about his likelihood to semi-bluff raise would be usesul. I'm assuming a very large range, like this.

Board: 7d 8d Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.067% 42.11% 01.96% 20010 930.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 55.933% 53.98% 01.96% 25649 930.50 { 77+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, J9s, 97s, 87s, 6d5d }


So, if a 2c shows up, for example, it changes to this.

Board: 7d 8d Tc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.881% 44.84% 01.04% 947 22.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 54.119% 53.08% 01.04% 1121 22.00 { 77+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, J9s, 97s, 87s, 6d5d }

And a Qd makes it look like this,

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.846% 41.94% 00.90% 812 17.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 57.154% 56.25% 00.90% 1089 17.50 { 77+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, J9s, 97s, 87s, 6d5d }

But a 9, for example, leaves you pretty bad vs his range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,892 games 0.005 secs 378,400 games/sec

Board: 7d 8d Tc 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.238% 17.55% 07.69% 332 145.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 74.762% 67.07% 07.69% 1269 145.50 { 77+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, J9s, 97s, 87s, 6d5d }

So, without more of a read, I think pushing a good turn is good, and c/f a bad turn is good.

But if you can narrow his range some, you might be able to just fold to the flop raise. Vs many of the guys I play with, I'd fold. But pushing is not very appealing either. And calling still leaves you with a big committment problem OOP. So, I say call and conditionally commit based on the turn card might be OK. And folding is OK, too. I wouldn't just push the flop, however.

[xxGreat1xx]

I def do not think he has AA. The only time people limp with AA is to re-raise the raiser. That didn't happen so I could see him with 910d, any Ax diamonds, J9diamonds, 56diamonds, ect. You maybe ahead to a few hands but I guarantee he has a million outs to the winner. What would he do this with that we beat though? He could even possible have a set. I think we are coinflipping against a 4 flush and straight draw. This just doesn't look promising.