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#1
08-16-2007, 01:15 PM
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So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
I see many posters advocating a Kelly approach to sizing their wagers. I've also seen very complex 'derivatives' of similar formulas in statistical journals online, many of which claim to be 'optimal' to the Kelly method. Regardless of the opinions of these published mathematical experts, I personally take a more simplistic, mundane approach that just winning, period, is good enough for me. What difference does 'optimal' bet size make if you don't hold an edge over the books to begin with? In that case, wouldn't the optimal bet size be zero???
But here's my real question... How many readers/posters in this forum actually own a career winning record against the sportsbooks? I'm not interested in anyone who simply ran 'hot' for awhile, because even the worst degenerates manage to sometimes to that. I'd like some feedback from anyone who manages to consistently win year after year. What advice can you give the rest of us??? 
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#3
08-16-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
Yes, with no edge optimal bet size is $0.
Yes, some people are long-term winners. My advice is to pick off soft lines at sucky books like SIA if you don't know how to cap. You will win.
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#5
08-16-2007, 07:46 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
i've bet against sportsbooks for 2.5 years now, and i'm ahead every year...
a pittance to some, as i don't have the motivation/bankroll/balls to bet 4-5 digits a game, but i'm ahead.. that said, what kind of answers is the OP looking for in this thread? how do i prove that, and even then, what difference does my couple hundred dollar win at the end of each year mean to you??
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#7
08-16-2007, 08:46 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
Thanks for your comments, and being ahead a couple hundred bucks is better than being down thousands.
I'll be the first to say that I handicapped sports 'professionally' several years ago in Las Vegas. I made a lot of cash in the wiresless comm. heydey 5-10 years ago and left my career to take my shot in Vegas. For two years I squeaked out a marginal living, watching degenerates crash and burn all around me. In grad school I wrote some pretty slick hoops and MLB game simulators, thinking this would make me some big bucks one day. I was still in my 20s, and hungry for action, baby. Two years later, I concluded this venture was a waste of time went back to work. Any statistical edge I had was marginal at best, while the psychological and emotional drain nearly killed me and my girlfriend. If anyone other than the wiseguy syndicates are beating the books, then congrats. But I'll be the first here to say that the physical and emotional toll is difficult to measure even with the best statisitcal models. Yo trixtrix, I'm with you. Now I'm into real estate and totally crushing the cappers...
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#8
08-16-2007, 09:07 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your comments, and being ahead a couple hundred bucks is better than being down thousands. I'll be the first to say that I handicapped sports 'professionally' several years ago in Las Vegas. I made a lot of cash in the wiresless comm. heydey 5-10 years ago and left my career to take my shot in Vegas. For two years I squeaked out a marginal living, watching degenerates crash and burn all around me. In grad school I wrote some pretty slick hoops and MLB game simulators, thinking this would make me some big bucks one day. I was still in my 20s, and hungry for action, baby. Two years later, I concluded this venture was a waste of time went back to work. Any statistical edge I had was marginal at best, while the psychological and emotional drain nearly killed me and my girlfriend. If anyone other than the wiseguy syndicates are beating the books, then congrats. But I'll be the first here to say that the physical and emotional toll is difficult to measure even with the best statisitcal models. Yo trixtrix, I'm with you. Now I'm into real estate and totally crushing the cappers... [/ QUOTE ] I think he was telling just you to quit. Why not just beat up on the retarded online books? There is no stress.
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#10
08-16-2007, 09:36 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
Why not just beat up on the retarded online books? There is no stress. [/ QUOTE ] Retarded? You must be making a killing. If they're retarded, how do they stay in business???
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