25NL Top two facing overbet shove

[james_leach]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($7.40)
Hero ($32.95)
SB ($2.75)
BB ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $22.15</font>

No Reads. I was pretty happy to see that turn, but maybe he was even happier? It's hard for me to figure a good reason to do this with any hand.

[Debaser]

He'll have a set here sometimes but there's no way you can fold this 100bb deep in a raised pot esp. 4 handed.

Call call call call.

[kitchma]

I know a crai on the turn looks scary, but we are crushing his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.346% 73.17% 02.17% 1481 44.00 { AhJs }
Hand 1: 24.654% 22.48% 02.17% 455 44.00 { JJ+, 77, 44, KQs, KTs, QTs, AJo+ }


Even if you take the suited connectors out of his range we are still a 70/30 fav. Breakeven percentage looks to be ~40%. Call.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
I know a crai on the turn looks scary, but we are crushing his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.346% 73.17% 02.17% 1481 44.00 { AhJs }
Hand 1: 24.654% 22.48% 02.17% 455 44.00 { JJ+, 77, 44, KQs, KTs, QTs, AJo+ }


Even if you take the suited connectors out of his range we are still a 70/30 fav. Breakeven percentage looks to be ~40%. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this range. I think it's more likely sets, AK, AQ, AJ, some % of bluffs. I don't see most people calling the flop with the other stuff you mentioned.

That said, it's obviously tough to lay this down, and in practice I'm very unlikely to do so.

[WarhammerIIC]

How are you not including A7 and A4 in the range?

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
How are you not including A7 and A4 in the range?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, I should have.

[kitchma]

Yea, I forgot to include A4 and A7, but our equity only increases with those included. As for the broadway suited connectors, I see people calling the flop with all sorts of weird stuff and only included those for the times villain pushes a turned combo draw. Again though, if you eliminate those from his range we are still crushing.

[monkeymaps]

this is a pretty clear call IMO yu only have to worry about 44 77 and MAYBE JJ. you crush eveything else in his range I see people do this with all kinds of aces/combo draws

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know a crai on the turn looks scary, but we are crushing his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.346% 73.17% 02.17% 1481 44.00 { AhJs }
Hand 1: 24.654% 22.48% 02.17% 455 44.00 { JJ+, 77, 44, KQs, KTs, QTs, AJo+ }


Even if you take the suited connectors out of his range we are still a 70/30 fav. Breakeven percentage looks to be ~40%. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this range. I think it's more likely sets, AK, AQ, AJ, some % of bluffs. I don't see most people calling the flop with the other stuff you mentioned.

That said, it's obviously tough to lay this down, and in practice I'm very unlikely to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should change the QTs, KTs, KQs to QhTh, Khth, KhQh

but yeah, it's still a prety obvious shove. If villain defends with A4 or A7, that's just awful.


Board: As 7h 4c Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.154% 62.15% 00.00% 629 0.00 { AhJs }
Hand 1: 37.846% 37.85% 00.00% 383 0.00 { JJ+, 77, 44, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh }